Tonight from PB’s Marf
Tonight’s cartoon from Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/aT5151Lvc2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015
Dave’s approach to leaders’ debates gets the thumbs down from the ComRes sample
Bu 55% to 23% voters tell ComRes that they think Cameron is being cowardly by trying to avoid the TV debates pic.twitter.com/TadhiK6HJs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 But what we don’t know is how salient an issue this is I am always a bit wary about polling like that featured above. Yes Mr. Cameron’s approach draws some negatives but does it actually matter? Isn’t the leaders’ debate issue just a concern that gets those within the “bubble” excited…
After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus
Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5%…
Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame
The campaign to persuade Elizabeth Warren to run for President http://t.co/bXc3sWuggn pic.twitter.com/xERcLp7jlC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it. Until now the widespread assumption has been…
The other polling news tonight – ComRes has the NHS moving to the top of the issues table
New ComRes poll for ITV finds that the NHS now the main concern of voters – jumping above immigration pic.twitter.com/OfDVtXI3JA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2015 Where will it be on May 7th – that’s what matters
If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON
Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…
Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?
EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach….
Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats
A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight