Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

Comments 0 Comment

Those people who bet on "other" with Hills on this market in July 2012 must now be looking forward to a big payout. pic.twitter.com/N1DQaTFref — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 In view of the way politics have developed in the past six months those who bet on “other” in the William Hill “Composition of Net Government” market in July 2012 have started to think that there’s a nice pay-out to come in May. I’ve got several bets on at…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Result : February 5th 2015

Local By-Election Result : February 5th 2015

Comments 0 Comment

Birmington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence) Tricia Gilby (Labour) 1,293 votes (62% -7%) Paul Stone (United Kingdom Independence Party) 380 votes (18%, no candidate in 2013) Mick Bagshaw (Independent) 157 votes (8%) John Ahern (Liberal Democrat) 135 votes (6% -3%) Lewis Preston (Conservative) 120 votes (6% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 913 votes (44%) on a swing of 12% from Labour to UKIP

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Comments 0 Comment

Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique in that those sampled are asked to name the issues without prompting. pic.twitter.com/eVkyN7LlTN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Where the huge jump in concern about the NHS has come from. pic.twitter.com/RDxV18G0Jl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issus Index. How concern about NHS breaks down amongst different groups pic.twitter.com/ir0PP1pAsu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for…

Read More Read More

How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

Comments 0 Comment

Thanks to Ralph Scott (‏@ralphascott) of Demos for this interesting study of MPs ahead of the election. I suppose one reason is that in the more marginal seats there are likely to be more selection contests because there’s a much better chance that they will change hands at a general election. It is interesting that the one Tory cabinet minister who is most vulnerable in May is Nicky Morgan who sits for the LAB-CON battleground of Loughborough. Mike Smithson For…

Read More Read More

The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

Comments 0 Comment

The Tories and Greens are the month’s winners In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since. A year later, UKIP overtook the Lib Dems for third and have…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Comments 0 Comment

Brimington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 43, Conservatives 18, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 1,857 (69%), Conservatives 301 (11%), Liberal Democrats 250 (9%), Independent (Mullins) 175 (6%), Independent (Mann) 119 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: John Ahern (Lib Dem), Mick Bagshaw (Ind), Tricia Gilby (Lab), Lewis Preston (Con), Paul Stone (UKIP) Derbyshire has always been called a Labour heartland council (and yet despite that…

Read More Read More

Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

Comments 0 Comment

As NATO meets with the Ukraine crisis looking gives her take pic.twitter.com/lTiQD5g2xV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. My latest polling column for Betfair. http://t.co/j3YxTIDwdf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

Comments 0 Comment

Response to Ashcroft first question Similar to Survation. The @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll before the 2nd seat specific question was put. pic.twitter.com/dXFjtA7d4l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 Second stage when it’s candidates in specific seats The @LordAshcroft Hallam poll after the constituency specific question was put. LD ahead but not by much pic.twitter.com/GxfQ3SMnSO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The overnight UNITE/Survation Sheffield poll which had LAB with a 9% lead highlights the very different approaches of…

Read More Read More