So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

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Opinium chart on tactical voting showing how Tory backers least likely to be making negative choce pic.twitter.com/Gz810cj5nA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 It’s a term that we hear all the time. Because we have first past the post the only way that those not supporting the two parties perceived to be on top locally can use their vote effectively is by switching to one that is in contention in order to stop another party. The theory is simple…

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Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

Labour moves to its best ever position in YouGov’s “blame for cuts” tracker – now just 3% behind

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In October 2010 LAB was 30% behind. In the very early days of the coalition and the austerity programme in 2010 I singled out the YouGov “who’s to blame for the cuts” tracker as a good monitor – because placing the blame on the “past lot” has been such a key part of coalition rhetoric. It is one that I have gone back to regularly especially when milestones are reached. Back in October 2010 just 18% blamed “the coalition” and…

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The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

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Extraordinary. What's alleged to be list of seats that CON is not targeting. http://t.co/Jd9kwMQ4Yp (via @Markpack) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 This is from Mark Pack. In this context “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’. Some are blindingly obvious others are less so. Ben Adams – Stoke-on-Trent North Bim Afolami – Lewisham Deptford Festus Akinbusoye – West Ham Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire Valerie Allen – Sefton Central Sue Arnold –…

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A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

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Chart of latest TNS Scotland poll pic.twitter.com/MWOfWJoQbW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 Scottish general election polling – all the surveys this year. pic.twitter.com/mt4dtO7nN6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 Even though they are behind this poll will come as a relief to LAB Just out from TNS is the latest Scotland poll. The main GE voting figures are in the chart above and as can be seen the red team trail the nats by 10%. But that…

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Tonight’s Marf cartoon – on HSBC and with nighthawks below

Tonight’s Marf cartoon – on HSBC and with nighthawks below

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Marf with her take on today's big story pic.twitter.com/fqkS1V6UPV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, this thread is Especially For You. If you’re thinking of Sticking To The Better The Devil You Know,…

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The 1992 experience would be a great precedent for the Tories if polling methodologies had stayed the same

The 1992 experience would be a great precedent for the Tories if polling methodologies had stayed the same

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The big betting decision of GE2015 – can we trust the polls? It’s being reported that the Tories are using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party on May 7th. The result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For GE1992 was the election that the pollsters got wrong and led to big changes in the years that followed…

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Maybe Ed Miliband has judged that the Tory press isn’t the force that it was

Maybe Ed Miliband has judged that the Tory press isn’t the force that it was

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The dramatic fall in circulations of national papers since 2010. http://t.co/eQX4jDOclp pic.twitter.com/8icyCqzdvF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015 And internet paywalls mean some papers have even less influence In yesterday’s Indy on Sunday (circulation down from 153,975 in January 2010 to 97,646 last month) John Rentoul was questioning the wisdom of the Miliband brother that he didn’t support for the LAB leadership in 2010 apparently taking on the “Tory press” Rentoul noted that Ed is currently on the end…

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