GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

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Meanwhile the negatives build up against the purples it has been said often in recent months that what the country really wants is a Labour government led by David Cameron. This perception is reinforced by the latest positive/negative in this week’s Ashcroft Nationaal Pooll. The question was quite simple “On scale of -100 to +100 how positive/negative do you feel about..? “ The chart is based on the net figures for all those listed with a breakdown for “swing” voter…

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The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

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One of 4 GE15 leaflets from the past 5 days – and there are 11 weeks to go. Oh the joy of living in a marginal! pic.twitter.com/ShfdYJgLau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 GE2010 Ipsos-MORI. Just 27% of those living in marginals realised that their seat was key battleground pic.twitter.com/YWqn0OUPiJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 The above polling by Ipsos at GE10 says a lot. By the final week just over a quarter of those sampled in…

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After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

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Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 Feb: CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 16, 2015 Now LAB go into lead for 1st time this year in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll pic.twitter.com/5i5Oh6Q6or — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 @LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 So what do we make…

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UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

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Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 CON jump 6% in most sensational poll of 2015 Breakdown of ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/sVyGcVPT0y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Others 11 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/7TPAFeVZw3 — Populus (@PopulusPolls) February 16, 2015 NHS remains most important issue according to ICM/Guardian poll. Just 4% said Europe. . pic.twitter.com/zSpz8Mvhkx — Mike Smithson…

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Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

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Labour are currently the largest recipient of tactical voting via @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/PcWPbxY7El — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 15, 2015 As part of this month’s Ipsos-Mori political monitor found that 22% of Lab voters saying they do so to keep another party out, rather than because the party represents their views. For the Tories the figure is 10%, for UKIP it is 9%and the Liberal Democrat’s it is 7%. Ipsos-More note “In previous years, the Liberal Democrats were most likely to say they…

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The Next Tory Leader betting

The Next Tory Leader betting

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Given the current polling and lack of time and opportunities for the polling to change, it is likely Cameron and the Tories in a little under three months time will be out of Downing Street, which in all likelihood means there will be a vacancy at the top of the Tory party. The current favourite is Boris Johnson, in past Tory leadership elections it has been profitable to lay the favourite. Another reason for laying Boris will be if the…

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UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

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The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has CON 32 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2015 LAB retains 2% lead in latest Opinium poll for the Observer LAB 35+1 CON 33+1 LD 8+1 UKIP 14-1 GRN 6-2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 ComRes IoS./S Mirror poll also has LAB 2 ahead CON 32% -1 LAB  34%= LD  7% = UKIP 16% -2 GRN  4% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 UKIP's share seems to have declined in most recent…

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