INTRODUCTION Some of you may remember the “Chronicle of a Bet Foretold” PB series in 2019. It was meant to be a cumulative series but real-life intruded and it fizzled out. It covers my real-life betting and seeing as I have now placed bets on UKGE2024 you’ll forgive me if I resurrect it for the latest instalment. It is not, unfortunately, a happy tale. BETTING SHOPS Most people on PB bet online. They set up accounts and select from a…
In the past few weeks we’ve seen a few polls with Labour polling sub 40% and these findings from JL Partners are intriguing. I am expecting a plethora of polling, if these findings are found by other pollsters the Tories might just avoid an extinction level event. TSE
The Dolchstoßlegende that Boris Johnson and his fans say that the current pickle the Tory party finds itself in is nothing to do with their man but thanks to John Burn-Murdoch’s analysis points out how poor their stab-in-the-back myth is. This morning I advised laying Boris Johnson as next Tory leader and this is further evidence why you should. I suspect had he have remained PM those polling figures would have gone further in the toilet for him. TSE
For the better part of a decade shrewd punters made decent profits laying David Miliband in the next Labour leader markets and I suspect that’s going to be the case for Boris Johnson too. Plenty of us made money by laying Boris Johnson in the second Tory leadership contest of 2022 and the one to succeed Rishi Sunak will almost certainly yield profits too. One of the primary reasons I said Boris Johnson would make for a terrible Prime Minister…
I’ve not focussed or bet on the French election due the UK general election and US Presidential election because I cannot handle three massive elections at the same time. The result in France has major ramifications for the UK, the Bank of England has warned that Le Pen’s plans will lead to a Liz Truss style economic disaster that would impact the UK economy which would be sub-optimal for Sir Keir Starmer. I suspect if the Le Pen’s party wins…
Former YouGov Chairman Peter Kellner has published his predictions and if he’s right then there’s a superabundance of betting opportunities, in the constituencies by using his assumptions. If you’re a bit pragmatic then the 9s on the Tories winning 150 to 199 seats on Betfair and if you’re feeling that Kellner is right then the Tories are a buy on the spreads. TSE
If these rumours are true then there is a smattering of value in some of these in backing the non Labour candidate/laying Labour in the constituency markets on Betfair but this may well be expectations management to get the vote out. Even the greats such as Thatcher and Cameron lost only one seat each when they took power in 1979 and 2010 (excluding a single notional loss and a technical loss to the Speaker) and Tony Blair didn’t lose a…
I still think based on anecdotes I have heard from campaigners from Tory and Labour activists across the country that the supermajority talk will help the Tories at the margins. One of the reasons the Tories got walloped in 1997 was around 2 million voters from 1992 sat it out, so Sunak’s strategy will try and stop a repeat of that and the talk has given some left leaning voters a free pass to vote Lib Dem/Green/SNP etc because it…