The Telegraph’s big political news..about Jack Straw and Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Tonight’s dramatic big political news pic.twitter.com/erNWzuBYo5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2015 Both are former Foreign Secretaries
Lib Dem sources say the debates unlikely to happen
Leaders' Debates unlikely to happen say the Lib Dems http://t.co/45SV5Jz0Ch pic.twitter.com/mL0mFHr1T6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 22, 2015 Today reports emerged that Liberal Democrat sources say the televised leaders’ debates are unlikely to happen. The Lib Dems aren’t happy because Nick Clegg is only in two of the three debates, and is relegated to the likes of Plaid Cymru, who received one-sixtieth as many votes in 2010 as the Lib Dems did. A spokesman for Clegg said the Lib Dem leader’s…
Who Will Deliver The First Budget After The May 2015 General Election?
Front page of tomorrow's @thesundaytimes, Is Ed Balls deep in trouble? pic.twitter.com/pKHv30FZir — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 21, 2015 The Sunday Times are reporting (££) that Ed Miliband has been urged to demote Ed Balls after the general election, amid simmering tensions in the Labour leadership over how to pay for a cut in university tuition fees. A shadow cabinet member said if Miliband becomes prime minister he should move the shadow chancellor and accused Balls of behaving with “contempt†towards…
Updated: Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead – LAB retains its slender YouGov lead
Trend chart from Opinium which has just recorded its first ever CON lead in its Observer polling series pic.twitter.com/o4q9cS3RlB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Opinium shares Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 The poll represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England Opinium ENGLAND only split CON 36 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 16 GRN 7 That compares with CON 11.4% lead in England at GE10 so a 4.1% CON to LAB…
Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair
CON to win most seats moves to an even stronger favourite on Betfair. Now a 62% chance pic.twitter.com/Qj3KJgc8ue — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 One poll with a CON lead in the past 17 pic.twitter.com/jmyBnGqEnS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Am I missing something here? Discuss On this exact day before GE2010 the money was going on a substantial CON majority in spite of the polls pic.twitter.com/Rt6VoJy5wc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Mike Smithson For…
David Herdson on Tactical voting: “the voters’ blind man’s bluff”
Why I think tactical voting will be down this year Once upon a time it was easy. There were only three parties, you had a rough idea of how the local land lay and if your preferred party stood no chance while your second preference did, then you could lend them your vote in the hope of keeping out the worst option. Oh for such simple times. Before looking forward, a quick look back. The phenomenon of widespread tactical voting…
As relations get even more strained with Mr. Putin Marf on Cameron’s cool response
Politicalbetting's Marf on Cameron playing it cool with Putin pic.twitter.com/7ZkBqcX4Ac — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015 The next PB gathering in London has been arranged for 7pm on March 17th at The Shooting Star 125-129 Middlesex Street London E1 7JF. This is just round the corner from Dirty Dicks. Hopefully the new venue will be more comfortable.
LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target
Survation private polling suggests the LDs "competitive" in Solihill CON target number 3 http://t.co/4JXAuHaYct pic.twitter.com/WOdNRrFFyc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015 Ladbrokes have them at 10/3 Big polling story of the day are the reports of Survation private seat surveys for the Lib Dems some of the details of which the party is publishing. A key element, unlike the Ashcroft polling, is that incumbent MPs are named which is having a positive impact on response. This is from the report:…