A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

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Nigel Farage in Thanet South pic.twitter.com/dIt7eHFjCT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 %age probability of UKIP victory in target seats from @Election4castUK S Thanet 2% chance pic.twitter.com/jfsBLKJilp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 Betfair exchange UKIP South Thanet (Farage) a 60%chance pic.twitter.com/SrnGnR5oP6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a…

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All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

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Something to make the blue team happy – perhaps? Make of this what you will and it might just be a huge coincidence but there appears to be a split between the pollsters that have been tested in a general election and those that haven’t. The pollsters with asterisks next to their names in the chart were all regular pollsters in the run-up to GE2010. The ones without them weren’t. Some of the firms classified as untested were around in…

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Marf on MPs with 2 jobs

Marf on MPs with 2 jobs

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Marf on 2 job MPs pic.twitter.com/90nvhU5cEI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Marf is speaking at an event tonight in London on freedom of speech and political cartoonists Changes in latest YouGov just published 2230 CON – 33% (-2) LAB – 33% (-) UKIP – 15% (+1) LDEM – 8% (+2) GRN – 6% (-1)

The MPs second job issue could have salience

The MPs second job issue could have salience

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YouGov finds strong support for stopping MPs have 2nd jobs pic.twitter.com/FPshaSczKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2015 Cameron’s right but it’s a hard sell Ed Miliband, inevitably given what’s happened this week, made MPs outside interests his primary focus at PMQs. The Labour approach is to control second jobs and there is a vote tonight on the issue. The question this far out from an election is whether this might resonate as we saw with the expenses saga ahead…

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There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

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How many of the CON 2010 gains can be retained? At the end of last year I started monitoring England only data from the main pollsters partly in response to the very different political environment that’s developed in Scotland. All the phone pollsters are providing this in their regular datasets as well as Survation and Opinium. It would be great if YouGov and Populus could follow suit. For if, as expected, LAB suffers major losses to the SNP in Scotland…

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Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

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Marf on Sir Malcolm pic.twitter.com/aKlmQdU3MV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 Two polls due this evening. Survation for the Mirror and the usual YouGov. They’ll be posted here as soon as they are out. Last month Survation had CON 31, LAB 30, LD 7, UKIP 23, GRN 3. Last YpouGov had CON & LAB tied. UPDATE LAB moves from 1% behind to 6% ahead in tonight’s Survation/Mirror poll Thee was a slightly smaller lead, check the third box on…

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Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

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SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%. If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3%…

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