The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

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There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote. The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element. A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as…

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Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

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Marf with a poignant cartoon on Jihadi John pic.twitter.com/ZT1gNSLw6n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 LAB back in the lead with Populus CON 31 LAB 33 LD 9 UKIP 16 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Another week & another forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher Very tight pic.twitter.com/3Pi3aE54Zf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 A bit unfair on UKIP? Publicity stunt for "The Producers" at Margate – UKIP conference venue. Hot pants & swastikas pic.twitter.com/cXwRT8vZ1j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27,…

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If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

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Jesse Norman – the old Etonian MP who led the 2012 CON backbench rebellion on House of Lords Reform pic.twitter.com/61siWbjrar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Did old-Etonian Jesse Norman cost his party the election? On July 11th 2012 David Cameron was seen to be having a furious row with his fellow old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who had just led the successful backbench revolt against planned House of Lords reform. Cameron knew very clearly what this meant. The boundary changes,…

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TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

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Based on UNS, the TNS Scotland poll would see the following seat totals. pic.twitter.com/wFMmMZ3BYr — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 26, 2015 Time appears to be running out for SLAB and Jim Murphy to avoid a shellacking in May. TNS’ second poll this year, brings them into line with all the others bar Panelbase who have substantial leads for the SNP. For those expecting differential turnout in Scotland to have an effect in May, “A majority of voters (61%) say they are…

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A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

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Nigel Farage in Thanet South pic.twitter.com/dIt7eHFjCT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 %age probability of UKIP victory in target seats from @Election4castUK S Thanet 2% chance pic.twitter.com/jfsBLKJilp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 Betfair exchange UKIP South Thanet (Farage) a 60%chance pic.twitter.com/SrnGnR5oP6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a…

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All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

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Something to make the blue team happy – perhaps? Make of this what you will and it might just be a huge coincidence but there appears to be a split between the pollsters that have been tested in a general election and those that haven’t. The pollsters with asterisks next to their names in the chart were all regular pollsters in the run-up to GE2010. The ones without them weren’t. Some of the firms classified as untested were around in…

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Marf on MPs with 2 jobs

Marf on MPs with 2 jobs

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Marf on 2 job MPs pic.twitter.com/90nvhU5cEI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Marf is speaking at an event tonight in London on freedom of speech and political cartoonists Changes in latest YouGov just published 2230 CON – 33% (-2) LAB – 33% (-) UKIP – 15% (+1) LDEM – 8% (+2) GRN – 6% (-1)

The MPs second job issue could have salience

The MPs second job issue could have salience

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YouGov finds strong support for stopping MPs have 2nd jobs pic.twitter.com/FPshaSczKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2015 Cameron’s right but it’s a hard sell Ed Miliband, inevitably given what’s happened this week, made MPs outside interests his primary focus at PMQs. The Labour approach is to control second jobs and there is a vote tonight on the issue. The question this far out from an election is whether this might resonate as we saw with the expenses saga ahead…

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