It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

Comments 0 Comment

Why the LDs are releasing some of their private polling Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking. The reason for the part disclosure is to make a very simple point that naming the candidates can make a huge difference – as seen in the one poll that was…

Read More Read More

It looking as though Al Murray is starting to get under Nigel Farage’s skin

It looking as though Al Murray is starting to get under Nigel Farage’s skin

Comments 0 Comment

Spectator And that’s what the Pub Landlord really wants One of the side-shows of May 7th is the Pub Landlord’s campaign in South Thanet, where Farage is seeking to win. It’s a tough three way marginal but the latest from Survation had him with a comfortable lead. All of this makes his reaction to the Election Commission’s ruling on Al Murray and his FUKP party quite surprising and over the top. What Farage need to do is go along with…

Read More Read More

Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the post-election scramble

Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the post-election scramble

Comments 0 Comment

Marf on Royal Wedding day April 2011 To govern is to choose It is fast becoming received wisdom that the general election in May will produce an inconclusive result, and all the parties are setting out their stalls in advance, marking their red lines. The SNP say they won’t prop up the Conservatives, the Labour party are likely to rule out a deal with the SNP, the Lib Dems may insist on a full coalition or no deal at all…

Read More Read More

One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

Comments 0 Comment

Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start…

Read More Read More

The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

Comments 0 Comment

Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (=), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-1), GRN 6 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Trend chart with @LordAshcroft 's latest poll pic.twitter.com/RjRI0Vo4gW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Only 2 of @LordAscroft polls this year have had LAB…

Read More Read More

PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

Comments 0 Comment

It’d tricky for Dave coming under scrutiny from 6 different sides David Cameron is a good media performer and remains his party’s biggest asset. There has been a lot of focus on the suggestion that despite this it’d be better for his party if he avoids the televised debates because of the platform it will give Ed Miliband. I know the theory, but this does not stack up for me and seem that convincing. What else could Conservative strategists be…

Read More Read More

How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

Comments 0 Comment

Boris was net 30 points ahead of Ken in the leader ratings This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost. Everybody knows that Boris pulled off a spectacular victory in the May 2012 London Mayoral Election when things were going badly for his party nationally. Yet what has been largely forgotten is…

Read More Read More

The polling finds David Cameron would get the blame were the debates not to take place

The polling finds David Cameron would get the blame were the debates not to take place

Comments 0 Comment

But do the public understand Cameron’s strategy and tactics over the debates? The polling by YouGov on the debates doesn’t make for good reading for David Cameron, such as 50% think David Cameron is scared to debate other party leaders. whilst 38% mostly blame Cameron for the stalemate over the debates, whilst 13% mostly blame the broadcasters, and below, David Cameron doesn’t come off as sincere in regards to the debates. Findings by @YouGov on the debates https://t.co/ywStD45I7b pic.twitter.com/A6iuBX1f4z — TSE…

Read More Read More