Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland come May. Jim Murphy isn’t turning to be the great hope that Labour were hoping he would be. YouGov Times in Scoltand: Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1 — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) March 12, 2015 Turning this poll into a seat projection the Times says YouGov / Scotland – if uniform swing, SNP would win 48…
West Side and Ness (An Taobh Siar agus Nis) on the Western Isles (Eilean Siar) (Ind defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 21, Scottish National Party 7, Labour 3 (Independent majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Capital E denotes elected Independents: Alastair Dunlop 94, Alistair MacLennan 119, Iain Morrison 354 E, John MacKay 310 E, Kenneth Murray 289 E (80%) Scottish National Party 298 E (20%) Candidate duly nominated (and elected): Alistair…
53% told Ipsos Standard poll they thought it's “time for a change†& just 32% said Tories deserved to win election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2015 Ipsos-Standard poll Who would be the most capable chancellor, 41% Osborne 30% Balls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2015
A good move for UKIP or a bad one? The big news this morning that Nigel Farage would axe many of the race laws is leading the bulletins and takes UKIP into an interesting political area. Is this the dog whistle that will bring voters back to the party or will it galvanise those opposed to his party? It is hard to say but it could have an explosive impact on the campaign. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics…
Will the Tory recovery have changed the picture? The big polling news in the past hour has been a Tweet from Lord Ashcroft saying that next week he’s publishing a new round of marginals poll of the seats he polled first nearly a year ago. These are the ones with the tightest majorities and the most vulnerable. I’ve shown a group in the chart above which I think might be included. If CON is on the up and LAB down…
Will there be a 4th consecutive CON YouGov lead tonight? For latest on the Sporting Index spreads price see the panel above the comments. This is updated in real time 24/7. Clearly the run of bad polls for Labour is taking its toll and adding to Tory confidence. We are now on three consecutive Tory leads. If we get to four then it will be the best for the blue team since the 2012 budget. Coming up tomorrow is the…
Reminder: PB gathering March 17th at 7pm The next PB get-together will take place on Tuesday March 17th from 7pm at the Shooting Star in Middlesex Street. As the map below shows this is just round the corner from our normal venue, Dirty Dicks. We are hoping that this will be less crowded and noisy than the pre-Christmas bash. Thanks to Fat Steve for finding the new venue. There are also plans for overnight May 7/8 – details soon.
Why the LDs are releasing some of their private polling Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking. The reason for the part disclosure is to make a very simple point that naming the candidates can make a huge difference – as seen in the one poll that was…