Approval ratings for last night’s participants Although the voting numbers don’t have much change the leader approval numbers could provide good pointers. Of the seven who took part last night only Clegg had negative ratings. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB
The notion that betting’s a good pointer to political outcomes got thwacked last night One of the things I keep on getting asked is whether betting markets are good pointer to political outcomes. Well last night we might have had an answer. Right throughout the event and on the Betfair exchange the money was going on Nigel Farage who became a very tight odds-on favourite. This is what Ladbrokes Shadsy writes on his blog:- “..on the YouGov poll that Ladbrokes…
Overall none of the seven did themselves harm As a general rule you have to wait a few days before you can draw firm conclusions about the impact of high profile event like TV debates. We had four instant polls and four different winners. I’ve yet to study the detail but it was odd that the bookies’ favourite firm, YouGov, produced a different polling outcome from the others. Having had a spread bet of Sturgeon with SPIN that was no…
UPDATE Sturgeon wins with YouGov ComRes #leadersdebate poll: 21% favoured Cameron 21% Miliband 21% Farage 20% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 5% Bennett 2% Wood http://t.co/jsd8Jb1lYA — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 2, 2015 Debate Result: Sturgeon wins Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults — YouGov (@YouGov) April 2, 2015 ICM makes it Miliband Guardian/ICM #leadersdebate poll: 25% Miliband 24% Cameron 19% Farage 17% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 3% Bennett 2% Wood Wow. Tories move to 37% in tonight's YouGov voting poll CON 37%,…
And another GE15 poll – this time from Panelbase New Panelbase GB poll has CON & LAB level pegging for 2nd week in a row CON 33% LAB 33% UKIP 17% LD 7% GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 More @LordAshcroft marginals polling to be published next week. My guess is that he'll be back with the CON-LAB battlegrounds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Debate starts pic.twitter.com/Z2xIBLTBg8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 The…
Like the first debate in 2010 the location is Manchester. This time at Media City Salford Quays pic.twitter.com/EQmo5pR9kO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Interesting from @BBCNewsGraphics. Where the close races are. pic.twitter.com/TBu11ZfTz9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 LAB retakes lead with Populus Lab. 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), GN 5 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 ENGLAND+WALES shares today's Populus onlineCON 33.7LAB 34.5LD 9.1UKIP 16.5This = CON to…
Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP. These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share. The biggest slippage of…
The squeeze is on the smaller players That cloud looks like a tree. Or a bird. Or a flower. It’s human nature to see patterns in chaos and further, to try to rationalise and explain those patterns. Hence earthquakes are still archaically ‘acts of God’. Hence also the interpretation of the four point Labour lead in the YouGov poll published after the Cameron-Miliband interviews and Q&A as a Miliband ‘win’. Given that YouGov routinely publish over 20 polls a month,…