On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100 seat lead – it finished up at 49 seats

On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100 seat lead – it finished up at 49 seats

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Actual seats won: CON 306, LAB 257, LD 57 One thing that really annoys me is when people start suggesting that betting prices are the best guide to what is going to happen. If this were the case then favourites would always win. They don’t. In the two TV debates during this campaign the betting markets made Nigel Farage favourite to be judged the winner in post debate polling. He wasn’t. But a better example of the shallowness of the…

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For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)

For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)

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Listed above are all the constituencies in England and Wales which would change hands on swings between 2% and 6% from CON to LAB. In most of them Lord Ashcroft has at some point in the past year conducted constituency specific polls. The least marginal, Crewe and Nantwich was polled earlier in the month. My working assumption is that almost all of Labour’s Scottish seats are going to go and my focus is on the CON-LAB battlegrounds in England and…

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Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time PB Poll Average score

Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time PB Poll Average score

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But it’s still very much in knife-edge territory The profusion of election-period polls means that it’s now possible to produce a PB poll average figure for shorter periods than before. Consequently, I’ve split the period from April 1 to May 6 into two parts and am using these instead, the first of which is for the scores for up to April 21: Con 34.5 (n/c) Lab 33.7 (-0.4) UKIP 11.4 (-0.8) LD 8.5 (+0.6) Grn 5.8 (+0.1) Oth 6.1 (+0.4)…

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New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

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This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South South Thanet Boston and Skegness Thurrock Forest of Dean Great Yarmouth North Thanet East Worthing and Shoreham Sittingbourne and Sheppey South Basildon and East Thurrock Castle Point A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which…

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New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

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British Electoral Study data sheds different light on the party An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes. British Election Study Co-Director Professor Geoffrey Evans and BES Research Fellow Dr Jonathan Mellon, from Nuffield College Oxford, say contrary to the popular view advocated by some academic researchers, working class voters are only a little more likely to support Ukip. And…

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“Cameron has wanted out for a while – just wants to go out on a high” : Tim Montgomerie

“Cameron has wanted out for a while – just wants to go out on a high” : Tim Montgomerie

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Dramatic Tweet exchange with Andrew Neil Spoke to major Tory donor tonight. "Tory campaign useless. Cameron's heart not in it. Not looking good". — Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 21, 2015 @afneil DC has wanted out for a while. He has just wanted to go out on some sort of high and hasn't been able to find that high. — Tim Montgomerie Ù† (@montie) April 21, 2015 This is not the sort of message that the Tories want to come out…

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Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

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LAB retakes the lead with TNS LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LD 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2015 And UKIP appear to be edging back ICM, TNS, Populus, Opinium, Survation, and Ipsos-MORI all have UKIP with increased shares. The others have no change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2015