ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

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CON extend lead to 3 in latest Guardian ICM poll pic.twitter.com/4pTbLA8dMQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 It’s almost no change with Populus The Populus figures CON 33%GRN 5%LAB 36%LD 8%UKIP 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 TNS has SNP with 32% lead in Scotland New TNS Scotland poll has SNP with 32% leadSNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27,…

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This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

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Being able to confront Ed was an opportunity that he fluffed For me one of the best bits of TV during the campaign was at the end of yesterday’s Andrew Marr show when the programme’s two main participants traditionally join each other on the sofa for the closing couple of minutes. This time it was Boris and Ed and the wide judgement was that the Mayor lost. This is how Nick Robinson saw it. Wonder how many Tories still think…

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The Deputy PM after the election betting

The Deputy PM after the election betting

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Paddy Power have put up a market on who will be the Deputy Prime Minister after the General Election. Given the recent pronouncements of Nick Clegg ruling out the Lib Dems joining a Lab/SNP coalition and Vince Cable saying he could stomach another coalition with the Tories (though he would like George Osborne’s job) it might not be wise to back them, particularly based on projections/forecasts the numbers for a Con/Lib Dem coalition don’t look possible. Tim Farron might be worth backing,…

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Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

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Could the (phone) pollsters be underestimating the UKIP support? Shy isn’t the first adjective I’d normally associate with UKIP supporters, but ever since David Cameron’s (in)famous comment about UKIP being a bunch of  “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly” there’s been a perception that UKIP are the BNP in blazers. But look at the above chart from YouGov, it might be indicative that some Kippers are shy about admitting who they really support. We’ve seen polling that shows, UKIP…

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The first of tonight’s three polls has the Tories still ahead but their lead falls from four to one

The first of tonight’s three polls has the Tories still ahead but their lead falls from four to one

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Actually that @OpiniumResearch poll is Con 34 (-2) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 13 (nc) Greens 6 (+1) pic.twitter.com/Tpcy1ObelP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 25, 2015 Latest @OpiniumResearch leader ratings pic.twitter.com/xE5Cx4YzyU — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 25, 2015 The fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday inclusive. Tonight I’m expecting Survation and YouGov polls as well, this thread will be updated as they come in. TSE #yougov #sundaytimes Labour maintain 2 point lead with 10 days to go. Labour 34, Con 32, ukip…

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David Herdson asks: Where’s Cleggy?

David Herdson asks: Where’s Cleggy?

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Solving the riddle of the election’s missing man Two Kings and a Joker is the hand the media traditionally aims to deal the public in their coverage of general elections. They don’t always manage to do so as it depends on the real-life characters available but the battle for No 10 is usually best told as a contest between two big parties with a wild-card element thrown in. That wild-card has usually been the Lib Dems, or the Liberal-SDP alliance…

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Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

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Summary latest @LordAshcroft seat polls pic.twitter.com/I0ST2L7UC0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol WCON 14LAB 38LD 20UKIP 2GN 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft ThurrockCON 30LAB 31LD 2UKIP 35GN 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft High PeakCON 40LAB 38LD 7UKIP 10GN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Colne ValleyCON 37LAB 35LD 8UKIP 11GN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol NWCON 43LAB 34LD 8UKIP 8GN 6…

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Marf after a day dominated by Libya

Marf after a day dominated by Libya

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Tonight’s YouGov figuresCON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 Update: The Tory final push Via @IanBarr67 Giant CON poster board seen in West London pic.twitter.com/HfkCSUSPA7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 New @LordAshcroft polling at 9am will feature key UKIP interests like Rochester & Thurrock. A good comparison for recent ComRes poll? —…

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