LAB close the gap to 1 with Ipsos and it’s level-pegging with Ashcroft

LAB close the gap to 1 with Ipsos and it’s level-pegging with Ashcroft

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And here's our final poll -Lab 35%, Cons 36%, UKIP 11%, LibDem 8% http://t.co/iAH7Vr5FhI — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 7, 2015 LAB voters with Ipsos more certain to vote than CON ones. See chart pic.twitter.com/Kk8D6TiQ8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 Chart from @LordAshcroft final final poll. pic.twitter.com/EpJ40rxTko — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 All the final phone polls are showing moves to LAB – a common trend. I — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015…

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GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

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4½ hours before voting starts – the spread betting markets from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/lMxvAWzHll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 By Aidan Nutbrown, senior trader at Sporting Index with overall responsibility for the firm’s Election markets The regulars of this parish will no doubt be very familiar with our host’s frequent highlighting of the difference in Sporting Index’s Conservative seats price and our Labour seats price. Why is it that this market seems so different from most pollsters’ forecasts…

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Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

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Final @ComResPolls poll for @DailyMailUK Con 35% (NC) Lab 34% (+2) Lib Dem 9% (NC) UKIP 12% (-2) Green 4% (NC) Others 6% (NC) — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 Preferred Prime Minister: David Cameron 52%, Ed Miliband 31% @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 BREAKING: Final YouGov/Sun poll for…

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LAB jump 3 with ICM to put them level-pegging

LAB jump 3 with ICM to put them level-pegging

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The ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/RLLLQ0Ri1a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015 The ICM 3% increase for LAB looks good for EdM and worrying for CON. Tonight's poll is first from firm since Jan that CON not ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015 But all four phone pollsters will continue fieldwork this evening and be issuing final final polls.

GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

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New Panelbase poll of Scottish voting intention has SNP in its dominant position SNP 48LAB 26CON 14LD 5UKIP 3GRN 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015 The main findings of a ComRes poll of undecided voters for ITV's Good Morning Britain pic.twitter.com/RwOidh5w8v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015 New YouGov/Standard poll for London hasLAB 46CON 33LD 9UKIP 8GN 3A 5.5% CON to LAB swing since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015 TNS final poll – CON…

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With so much potential tactical voting the overall national party vote shares won’t mean as much

With so much potential tactical voting the overall national party vote shares won’t mean as much

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Tomorrow is about seats not national vote totals There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party ends up with on Friday morning. Yet as we’ve seen strikingly in Monday’s ICM Hallam poll or last week’s Ashcroft survey in Jim Murphy’s Renfrewshire East a very large slab of electors on…

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Two new polls have the battle very tight

Two new polls have the battle very tight

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To recap 1 online pollster LAB lead 1% 3 online pollsters level pegging 2 phone pollster CON leads 2% & 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 Survation Mirror poll with changes on previous survey for paper LAB 34% (NC); CON 33% (NC); UKIP 16% (NC); LD 9% (NC); GRE 4% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 Survation Mirror Ballot Prompt voting responses where seat specific ballot papers shownCON 31%LAB 32%LD 10%UKIP 15%GREEN 5%SNP 4% — Mike Smithson…

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