Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupid

Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupid

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Farage unresigns – http://t.co/VYN9YMdibq pic.twitter.com/J5oUsBuHca — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2015 During the campaign Farage made a big thing of him being ready to step down if he failed to win Thanet South. Well he did fail and did announce last Friday that he was resigning. This afternoon he’s back in the job after the party’s NEC “refused to accept it”. Rubbish. It just appears as though his campaign threat was a device. This doesn’t look good for UKIP…

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The new one member one vote rules will transform Labour’s leadership election

The new one member one vote rules will transform Labour’s leadership election

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Liz Kendall tells @afneil that she's a leadership runnerhttp://t.co/OKnfA55VAe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2015 Dan Jarvis rules himself out while Liz Kendall tells Andrew Neil that she is in Well we are off in the race to find the next LAB leader. Last night one of the most heavily tipped possible runners, ex-army Major Dan Jarvis, announced that he would not be putting his name forward. A few hours earlier the relatively unknown Liz Kendall told Andrew Neil…

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The PB GE15 competition: Results from the April round

The PB GE15 competition: Results from the April round

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Congraulations to Mortimer who wins the prize Above is the full spreadsheet from our April prediction competition. Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. Could Mortimer send me an email so I can arrange for the prize? Email. Help keep PB going by making a donation…

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Time for Labour to make a clean break from its economic past

Time for Labour to make a clean break from its economic past

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My bold prediction for the 2020 General Election, the economy will dominate it, as much as it did this year, even if the economy is performing badly, which will be particularly bad news if your name is Liam Byrne, as the argument will be framed in terms of the situation the Tories inherited in 2010. Ed Miliband’s refusal to admit that Labour overspent between 1997 and 2010 during Question Time a week before election day, was felt to be a crucial…

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So were there really shy Kippers?

So were there really shy Kippers?

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Prior to the election, there was speculation, the pollsters weren’t picking up “Shy Kippers”. Though every single phone poll underestimated UKIP, it was within an acceptable amount, and the largest errors were from the online polls from Panelbase and Survation, who overestimated UKIP by 3%. The polls that underestimated UKIP, on average, underestimated UKIP by 1.6%, and the polls that overestimated, did so on average by 1.9%. The online pollsters overestimated UKIP by 0.8% and the phone underestimated UKIP by 1.7%….

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Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

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Full chart with all entries here Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. This is only open to people over the age of 18. In the next few days the firm will have a bigger range of GE2015 markets up. On top of that there will…

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