GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

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One of the great developments of the campaign has been the appearance of many new online resources for analysis and discussion. One of these has been the excellent Polling Matters created by Keiran Pedley of pollster GFK. This afternoon, in collaboration with Polling Matters, we have a special podcast featuring some of the key players. Keiran spent the last week speaking to several leading experts in the polling industry including Professor John Curtice, Lord Foulkes, Damian Lyons Lowe of Survation,…

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David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

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This was the biggest disaster in nearly a century? The Lib Dems and their predecessors have been through some bad times over the years but what faces them now is their worst crisis in nearly a century. It is worse than the splits over Ireland under Gladstone that ended their pre-eminent position in the country; it is worse than the division between Asquith and Lloyd George, which ended them as a party of government; it is worse than the post-merger…

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Henry G Manson, PB’s LAB insider, says Yvette, not Burnham, should be favourite for the party leadership

Henry G Manson, PB’s LAB insider, says Yvette, not Burnham, should be favourite for the party leadership

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Under the new rules this is about organisation It’s only been a week but it’s shaping up to be a lively leadership and deputy contest so far. Some early discussion on lost voters, did Labour spend too much, was there much wrong with Labour’s manifesto if anything and even which type of unsuspecting supermarket shopper should the party pouncing on in the car parks in five years time. Is New Labour the right model for victory or was that where…

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Nick Clegg’s next career more should be to run for Mayor of London

Nick Clegg’s next career more should be to run for Mayor of London

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Away from the LAB leadership there’s been a bit of a buzz about today about Nick Clegg’s future with the extraordinary suggestion that he should be his party’s candidate for Mayor of London in the election next May. Although the final outcome last week was devastating for his party for the LDs he emerged, in the eyes of some, with his reputation enhanced which was reinforced by the manner and dignity of his resignation last Friday. Clegg relishes campaigning and…

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Big shake up in next LAB leader betting following Chuka Umunna’s withdrawal from the race

Big shake up in next LAB leader betting following Chuka Umunna’s withdrawal from the race

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The @TelePolitics report on Chukka Ununna quitting the LAB leadership race.http://t.co/xSMBu8PxNq pic.twitter.com/gOW0Avmm09 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015 Full list of PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m22thh LAB leadership prices. pic.twitter.com/B93bbbjpcY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015 Following Chukka's withdrawal latest Hills betting6/4 Burnham 6/4 11/4 Cooper 5/1Kendall12/1 Hunt14 Creagh; — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015 Daily Mail says "union barons" trying to stop Liz Kendall signing up the 35 MPs she needs to stand pic.twitter.com/QKGA3HJHP0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…

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The GE2020 challenge for LAB: Unless its Scottish losses can be reversed it needs a 12% lead for a majority

The GE2020 challenge for LAB: Unless its Scottish losses can be reversed it needs a 12% lead for a majority

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The challenge facing LAB by John Curtice. 12% lead required for majority pic.twitter.com/haSbQSY02w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015 Within a few weeks of each general election Professor John Curtice and other leading psephologists start producing the numbers that will shape the next general election. The first one is in the Mail piece – what LAB would need to do to secure a majority next time. Before last week’s election Curtice had said that the Tories would require a…

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The real answer to the “shy Tories” phenomenon is Boris

The real answer to the “shy Tories” phenomenon is Boris

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In 2012 many more said they’d vote for him than actually did A lot has been written in the past week about so-called “shy Tories” who are reluctant to tell pollsters on the phone or when they complete online questionnaires that they’ll support the blues. Yet look at what happened in 2012 when Boris was re-elected as mayor of London – the opposite happened. Every single pollsters had Boris lead at a level bigger than it was. Of the firms…

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