How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide

How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide

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And the BPC announces details of its GE15 inquiry After every general election Ipsos produces a table like the one above which become a key source of reference. Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls. Under the chairmanship of Prof. Patrick Sturgis, Director of the National Centre for Research Methods at the University of Southampton, the Inquiry is charged with the task of establishing the degree of inaccuracy in…

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New PB columnist Don Brind looks back two weeks

New PB columnist Don Brind looks back two weeks

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ITV News 2200 May 7th the moment the exit poll was announced The Tories won the ground war There was a persistent refrain from Tories as they looked at polls pointing to David Cameron being ejected from No 10 – “Rememeber 1992”. It was tempting to reply – “Beware of what you wish for” The Tory annus mirabilis saw John Major confounding the pollsters and trouncing Neil Kinnock with a record 14 million votes. But it swiftly turned into annus…

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Marf on Osborne’s plan for the civil service

Marf on Osborne’s plan for the civil service

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PB Update – welcome to Don Brind Tomorrow the political journalist, Don Brind, is joining our small team of regular guest slot contributors. He is somebody I’ve known a very long time since we both worked at the BBC in the 1970s. In recent times Don has been a regular contributor on The Week Back in 2007 Don gave me a well argued steer on the then LAB deputy leadership contest to the effect that Harriet Harman, then 10/1, was…

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Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

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Post election poll by GQR, LAB's pollster, for the TUC pic.twitter.com/UmlhhEVVt5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR's post GE15 poll finds that CON had just about twice as many 55+ voters as LAB pic.twitter.com/8dNJ94yauf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR, Labour’s pollster, has just published a post May 7th survey it carried out for the TUC asking people how they voted. The main findings are above and show a big lead for CON amongst men and…

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It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

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Tim Smith Univ of Nottingham The vote shares of first time incumbents held up the most A short paper headed “Lib Dem incumbency advantage persists but fails to prevent disaster” by Tim Smith of the University of Nottingham has just been published and provides valuable evidence of the power of first time incumbency. This happens when someone who won for the first time at the previous elections seeks to defend the seat. The table above shows the very different performances…

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Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7/4 2016 EU referendum price looks like a good bet

Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7/4 2016 EU referendum price looks like a good bet

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All the signs are that the new Tory government wants to move fast with the EU referendum. We should get an idea on the timing in the upcoming Queen’s Speech. 2016 seems to make a lot of sense. It coincides with devolved parliament elections in Scotland and Wales as well as the next London Mayoral election – all areas of the UK where support for staying in is generally higher than elsewhere. It also will get the issue out of…

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Searching for a parallel to 2015

Searching for a parallel to 2015

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Parallels from the past can never be as neat as those proposing them might like to hope. For starters, any modern comparison for 2015 could never do justice to the SNP’s triumph, and what happens in Scotland over the next five years could dramatically change the Parliamentary arithmetic in 2020. Regardless, let’s see what we can come up with, focussing on the two main parties. 1992 is a very tempting parallel, and probably the one that offers Labour the most…

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Burnham’s nomination surge could block out other LAB leadership contenders

Burnham’s nomination surge could block out other LAB leadership contenders

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Unlike 2010 the unions are most influential at the start of the race We all remember how the big unions were able to influence the 2010 leadership race by sending out to political levy paying members ballot packs like the one above. This time the rules have changed and the opportunity to influence is most strong at the nomination stage. Shadow health sec, Andy Burnham, is doing particularly well winning the support of fellow MPs who are prepared to nominate…

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