ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

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ICM test on different formats for referendum question. 1st option is the one in the bill. pic.twitter.com/z4Wady42oq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2015 But other formats less good for YES ICM used a split sample in its online test and put three different options the first one being that inlcuded in the referendum bill. Split sample Q1: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? 1. Yes 2. No 3. DK Split sample Q2: Should the…

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25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

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A police statement earlier this morning said simply “Police officers attended an address at Fort William on Monday, June 1 to reports of the sudden death of a 55-year-old man. Police were notified by ambulance service personnel. There are no suspicious circumstances.” Charles, who became an SDP MP at the age of 23, led the LDs from 1999 to 2006. Under his leadership the LDs won 62 seats at GE2005, I met him a number of times and this has…

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At last! Betting on the May 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election

At last! Betting on the May 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election

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Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnqvbc become the 1st national bookie to offer odds on the May 2016 Holyrood elections pic.twitter.com/KS6gSdqYYu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 Understanding the Scottish system Given what we’ve seen it is very hard to envisage anything other than a big SNP victory. Unlike last month’s general elections north of the border where the SNP were able to pick up 56 of the 59 seats with 50% of the vote the system for Holyrood is different and should…

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CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

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First YouGov/Sun GE20 voting poll after the electionCon 41 Lab 30 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 First YouGov voting poll since GE15 has 44% saying they disapprove of the Government’s record to date & 39% saying approve — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 Today's YouGov net minus 5 government approval rating compares with net plus of 20 in 1st poll of June 2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 From…

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If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

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YouGov monthly averages 2013-15 What kept him in place were LAB’s good voting intention numbers The table above shows the YouGov monthly averages from its daily polls for the period 2013-2015. These numbers are being highlighted to make a statement about all the pollsters – that for much of the last parliament Labour enjoyed substantial leads and it was only in recent months that this started to decline. These voting intention shares were being recorded in poll and after poll…

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Looking ahead to who will be the Tory London Mayoral Candidate

Looking ahead to who will be the Tory London Mayoral Candidate

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In less than a year Londoners will elect the successor to Boris Johnson, but who will be the Tory candidate? I suspect the candidate will someone with a high profile, and the ideal choice, would be Lord Coe, but it is believed his future is focussed upon the IOC, so who then? Zac Goldsmith is the current favourite, but the value in him has gone now. One of the reasons, I’m no longer backing any current Tory MP is given…

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Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winning the referendum

Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winning the referendum

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Not many people seem to view the EU as an issue – For Out it maybe that a low turnout referendum/differential turnout is the route to winning. Looking at this month’s Ipsos Mori issues index above, as usual, the  EU isn’t in the top 10 issues, whilst I sympathise, with those that say that Immigration is a proxy for the  EU, when we look at the specific EU tracker below, by Ipsos Mori, the EU isn’t a priority as it…

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David Herdson says that the Battle of Skinner’s Seat is only the beginning

David Herdson says that the Battle of Skinner’s Seat is only the beginning

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Salmond: the new Parnell in Westminster The House of Commons can be a pretty rowdy place at times but it does at least have rules and conventions to which its members are expected to adhere. At one time, it had far fewer rules and rather more conventions (as the Lords still does). The reason why the change came about can be credited to Charles Stewart Parnell, the dominating Irish politician in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. He astutely…

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