The new leader must win back trust on the economy If there was one moment where Labour’s fate was sealed during April’s election campaign, it was not the unveiling of the Edstone; it was Ed Miliband’s answer to whether he thought Labour had been spending too much prior to the Crash in 2008. He started by simply saying “no, I don’tâ€. It may well have been that Labour was already heading for defeat at that point – given how badly…
The mystery is why Burnham is odds on “It’s Andy’s to lose, right?†The bookmakers have Andy Burnham odds on to be the next Labour leader but I’m just not convinced. To be fair to Andy his campaign is considerably better than in 2010 and he has an impressive array of support from across the party. But despite getting most MP nominations so far and topping the Labourlist survey there are at least three good reasons why he might well…
Rothwell on Kettering Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Jelley 771, Sumpter 853 E, Talbot 777 E Labour: Harris 614, Jones 623, Mills 951 E United Kingdom Independence Party: Hogston 370 Green Party: Heath 82, Jones 119, Reeves 89 No change from 2011 Wisbech South on Cambridgeshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (64% +33%), UKIP 298 (19% -19%), Labour 219 (14% -2%), Liberal Democrats 61 (4% -10%) Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 722 (45%) on a swing of 26% from…
May 7th 2015: The afternoon when CON seat buyers panicked CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 spreads down 6 today – now 19 seats pic.twitter.com/l3SVpTf2cj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 A lot has been written about the predictive nature of betting markets – a theory I do not subscribe to. Just look at how the Commons seats spreads moved on general election day and the comparison with the actual result. My understanding is that there was a huge panic…
What an amazing stat – 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain. — Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnsocial) September 23, 2014 He could be struggling where it matters most Last September UKIP was making great play of the London dominance of LAB by asserting that 48% of the party’s members lived there. Whether that’s accurate or not or whether it still holds good is hard to day but there’s little doubt that the red…
Rothwell on Kettering (Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1 Result of ward at last election (2011):Â Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%) Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%) Independent: Alan Pote 616 (20%) Liberal Democrat: John Holt 230 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservatives: Ian Jelley, Karl Sumpter, Margaret Talbot Labour:…
ComRes/Mail chart of its 1st post GE15 poll with new methodology pic.twitter.com/3Y92PalA8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 ComRes chart showing impact of its new "voter turnout model" pic.twitter.com/r3aqagDiuI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 In its first post GE15 phone survey for the Daily Mail ComRes is reporting a 12% CON lead. In an attempt to learn the lessons of May 7th the firm has developed a new Vote Turnout Model which seeks to refine the standard…
There’s an extraordinarily comprehensive account by Patrick Wintour in the Guardian this morning of how right up to the moment the exit poll was published at 10pm on May 7th that Ed and his team really believed he was about to become PM. The report opens: “This is the story of how the election defeat came about, based on extensive interviews with many of Miliband’s closest advisers. It is a story of decisions deferred, of a senior team divided, and…