As the Lib Dem leadership race starts a timely reminder from Ladbrokes of the devastation the party suffered at GE15

As the Lib Dem leadership race starts a timely reminder from Ladbrokes of the devastation the party suffered at GE15

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Next Lib Dem leader betting, 5 years ago:4 Laws5 Alexander8 Teather8 Huhne10 Farron10 Cable10 Davey16 Swinson20 Hughes25 Lamb — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2015 There are, as expected, just two candidates in the LD leadership race – or a quarter of the entire parliamentary party. Interestingly the two, Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, are the only ones in the list just Tweeted by Ladbrokes of the betting exactly five years ago. The most important thing to say is that…

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The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding position in the betting & MP declarations

The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding position in the betting & MP declarations

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Just six days to go before nominations open Not long now before the formal process for electing Labour’s next leader kicks into place. To appear on the ballot a contender has to have nominations from 35 fellow MPs and, as the chart shows, just Shadow Health Secretary, Andy Burnham, has managed to get more than that number to declare for him. In the betting he’s seen as being in strong position and on Betfair he’s now an odds-on chance. Meanwhile…

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ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

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ICM test on different formats for referendum question. 1st option is the one in the bill. pic.twitter.com/z4Wady42oq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2015 But other formats less good for YES ICM used a split sample in its online test and put three different options the first one being that inlcuded in the referendum bill. Split sample Q1: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? 1. Yes 2. No 3. DK Split sample Q2: Should the…

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25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

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A police statement earlier this morning said simply “Police officers attended an address at Fort William on Monday, June 1 to reports of the sudden death of a 55-year-old man. Police were notified by ambulance service personnel. There are no suspicious circumstances.” Charles, who became an SDP MP at the age of 23, led the LDs from 1999 to 2006. Under his leadership the LDs won 62 seats at GE2005, I met him a number of times and this has…

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At last! Betting on the May 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election

At last! Betting on the May 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election

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Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnqvbc become the 1st national bookie to offer odds on the May 2016 Holyrood elections pic.twitter.com/KS6gSdqYYu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 Understanding the Scottish system Given what we’ve seen it is very hard to envisage anything other than a big SNP victory. Unlike last month’s general elections north of the border where the SNP were able to pick up 56 of the 59 seats with 50% of the vote the system for Holyrood is different and should…

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CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

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First YouGov/Sun GE20 voting poll after the electionCon 41 Lab 30 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 First YouGov voting poll since GE15 has 44% saying they disapprove of the Government’s record to date & 39% saying approve — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 Today's YouGov net minus 5 government approval rating compares with net plus of 20 in 1st poll of June 2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 From…

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If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

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YouGov monthly averages 2013-15 What kept him in place were LAB’s good voting intention numbers The table above shows the YouGov monthly averages from its daily polls for the period 2013-2015. These numbers are being highlighted to make a statement about all the pollsters – that for much of the last parliament Labour enjoyed substantial leads and it was only in recent months that this started to decline. These voting intention shares were being recorded in poll and after poll…

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