In recent times first big event in the White House race has been the Iowa Caucuses where GOP voters in the state become the first to have a say on the party nominees. The Democrats won’t be making their Iowa choice for a month or so. Trump is throwing a lot at the contest and the big question is which of the others is in a better position to take him on. There’s been media support for Haley but others…
If Rishi Sunak does manage to send illegal migrants to Rwanda I don’t think he will get any polling boost with even Tories and Leavers think the policy isn’t value for money. For those Tories wanting a Get Rwanda Done election this last stand might prove as successful as the Celtiberians at the Siege of Numantia. (Spoiler alert, the Celtiberians were all wiped out as was their city.) TSE
This market from Ladbrokes is probably a market to avoid. I can understand why Rachel Reeves is the favourite but there are rumours that Sunak wishes to preempt Starmer and have his former adviser Claire Coutinho as the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer but I would want better odds than 2/1. Additionally with the Tories in their current Jonestown phase it is possible Sunak is replaced before the election and say Suella Braverman replaces him and appoints Robert Jenrick…
Lady Haldane will issue her judgment on the Scottish government’s challenge to Westminster’s S.35 Order on the GRR Bill at ca. midday Friday. It will be the first on how far, if at all, Westminster can limit the Scottish government’s devolved legislative powers. It will also have implications for the Equality Act and how trans rights affect women’s rights. That there is a clash between them has not been in doubt since the High Court’s July 2021 decision on women’s…
Looking at that chart it is understable why people think the Tories are doomed. Unlike the period between March 2012 and May 2014 when the Tories led by David Cameron didn’t lead in the polls there were enough clues in the supplementaries that the country prefered David Cameron over Ed Miliband, and George Osborne over Ed Balls but right now that situation doesn’t exist for Sunak where Starmer leads on pretty much every metric. My expectation is that we will…
I suspect Robert Jenrick’s resignation has shot that particular fox as his letter is a gift to the opponents of the Tories, Even before Jenrick’s resignation fighting an election on Rwanda would have been a courageous strategy, particularly in the light of this. I don’t think this will be a trigger event to see a vote of confidence in Sunak but I’m not going to stake much money on that assumption. TSE
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I try not to be condescending but are 16% of the country gullible idiots? These are the people who scammers target. These are not ratings of somebody who could win a general election, I suspect the ratings will get worse in light of the story in The Times and his evidence to the inquiry. TSE