On May 7th LAB failed to win Bedford, where I live by 1097 votes. Last night the local branch nominated Corbyn. Bonkers. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2015
A message for the acting LOTO from Don Brind I was proud to have been a member of Team Harman that won the deputy leadership of the Labour Party for Harriet in 2007. I admire her as a consistent campaigner for radical causes, championing feminism, equality and diversity in and out of government. Her politics is rooted in London communities – in North West London where she was legal adviser to the Grunwick strikers in the 1970s and in South…
Greystoke and Hesket on Cumbria (Con defence) Result: Conservatives 635 (55% +2%), Liberal Democrats 518 (45% +22%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 117 (10%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lib Dem NB: UKIP vote in 2013 split 92% Liberal Democrat, 8% Conservative Gorleston St. Andrew (UKIP defence) and Mile Cross (Lab defence) on Norfolk Gorleston St. Andrew Result: Conservative 876 (43% +16%), Labour 773 (38% +2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 285 (14% -23%), Liberal Democrats 66…
Tim Farron won the Lib Dem leadership on the strength of his election successes and was very much the choice of the activists. With only eight MPs at Westminster Farron would dearly love there to be a parliamentary by-election. But who knows when one of those is going to come up? So in the meantime the emphasis will be going back to its roots by seeking to build up the party on a local level. Next May’s elections are nearly…
Greystoke and Hesket on Cumbria (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrats 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 723 (53%), United Kingdom Independence Party 331 (24%), Liberal Democrats 312 (23%) Candidates duly nominated: Judith Derbyshire (Lib Dem), Thomas Wentworth (Con) Cumbria is impossible to get a majority on and part of the reason can be found in the Eden district…
The vote split was 56.5% to Norman Lamb’s 43.5: I maintain my record of having voted in every LD leadership election but never for the winner Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
LAB supporters more likely to have overstated certainty to vote There’s an important paper just out from the British Election Study on what went wrong with the polls on May 7th. Why did it happen? The report by Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser does not give much credence to the “late swing”, “don’t knows” and “shy Tory” theories and argues that differential turnout was most to blame. Those over-stating their likelihood to vote were more likely to be those saying…
Telegraph providing step by step guide on how to vote for Corbyn in order to help "doom" LAB.http://t.co/AJNWGAzdKM pic.twitter.com/Ii6XHxRtV5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015 The Telegraph's guide to how Tories can vote for Corbyn is herehttp://t.co/AxFgffMgfa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015 In Betfair exchange this evening punters have been rating Corbyn's chances of LAB leader at between 20-25% pic.twitter.com/PcyyxZa1go — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015