Burnham the big loser after survey had him 3rd One of the great features now on the Betfair exchange for those who like trading is that with one click you can cash out and instantly get to a position where you are equal on all outcomes. Yesterday evening just after news of the latest private polling came out there was nearly £10,000 available on Betfair for those who wanted to lay Andy Burnham at the price of 2.1. Effectively this…
The private poll seen by Mirror with Corbyn 22% ahead & Cooper in 2nd place. http://t.co/b3wbQFQhtI pic.twitter.com/bSMovl8nhP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2015 It’s hard to comment on private polling and I’ve no idea about the veracity of it. But I don’t think that the Mirror would be flagging it in the way it is without it having some confidence about the source. The Corbyn lead is extraordinary and fits in with other indicators. The question is which of…
The front page of tomorrow's I pic.twitter.com/2fkFD2SRqT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2015 But does this poll really tell us anything? An ORB poll for the Independent carried out over the weekend finds that 76% of those who had a view believe that LAB is less electable now than it was at the general election. We’ve not yet seen the dataset or the precise question wording but the overall picture looks gloomy for the red team and sets out…
The data that underlines the importance of the current election Whichever of the four ins he/she will have to be perceived a lot better than Ed was if the red team is to have any chance whatsoever. This polling should be at the heart of the leadership campaign. A non-credible leader means a likely third consecutive general election defeat. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The Tories Are Staying Off TV So Everyone Watches Labour Tear Itself Apart: http://t.co/AZhXnbt9eV pic.twitter.com/23BfY8ZdKy — BuzzFeed News UK (@BuzzFeedNewsUK) July 27, 2015 Notice there’s been nothing from the blue side re-Mid Staffs Probably the most successful Lynton Crosby message in the run-up to May 7th was the warning of “confusion and chaos” if Labour was returned. It was this, I’d suggest that helped get the marginal CON supporters out to vote and UKIP switchers back into the fold in…
Is he having second thoughts about his exit date? Following Cameron’s comments in the BBC interview at the end of March there’s a widespread assumption that at some stage this parliament that he’ll step aside and a new CON leader will be elected presumably becoming PM before the May 2020 general election. But is he? The conversation in Cameron’s kitchen came at a time when the election outcome looked very tight. Very few were making assumptions that an overall CON…
The 60-something candidate, initially priced at 100/1 by Ladbrokes, suddenly looks like he might actually win. The public seem to have had enough of the over-coached younger generation and his price tumbles to single figures, but the establishment judges warn that he is making a mockery of the contest. I speak, of course, of the 2008 series of Strictly Come Dancing. John Sergeant saw off the likes of Gary Rhodes and Cherie Lunghi but then bowed out, saying: “As time…