This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

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Team Burnham really should shout this from the rooftops. http://t.co/ustVi1YX7x pic.twitter.com/VFkhg85yss — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 The Observer have reported The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper. In a dramatic intervention less than a week before the result, Toby Perkins said he believed the complexities of the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters’ second preferences play a decisive role, left…

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We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

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We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton. http://t.co/ADnajMGgy8 pic.twitter.com/zFySSGDJkJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 A poll by Survey USA was released this weekend and it found. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday. The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice…

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One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

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Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…

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Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

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In October 1974 Thatcher was 50/1 to be the next Tory leader. Less than four months later, she became Tory leader pic.twitter.com/OiALS7dNSI — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 The favourite this far out seldom wins the Tory leadership – Will Osborne be any different? In an interview with the Guardian today Sir Vince Cable predicts that George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister. Sir Vince like Mark Antony comes to bury Osborne, not praise him by saying Osborne is “extremely shrewd…

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Syria: a call to alms?

Syria: a call to alms?

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Thursday morning's front pages via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/qyPsNJAdTz — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic. Trite and perhaps misattributed though that quote is, it has probably never been more true than this week when the image of one young boy on a Turkish beach did more to highlight the plight of Syrian people than any number of reports of the death toll in the conflict (about 240,000 so far, including 12,000 children),…

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Understanding the Cooper surge

Understanding the Cooper surge

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As with other bookies Yvette Cooper's chances on Betfair have improved in the last 36 hours, she's now 2nd favourite pic.twitter.com/3iYuOS9Qnl — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 As with other bookies Burnham's chances on Betfair have declined in the last 36 hours, he was 2nd fave now 3rd fave pic.twitter.com/OWNzzoj5Nb — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 Ladbrokes: 74% chance Corbyn will win #Labour vote. Cooper overtakes Burnham as main threat. http://t.co/taExTpXAwj pic.twitter.com/BVUyXDZker — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2015 In…

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Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

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Whilst Clinton and Trump set the pace, a host of other candidates are waiting in the wings.  Polling expert Keiran Pedley runs the rule over the 2016 US Presidential hopefuls. Having spent the past week in the U.S. visiting my wife’s parents I have been able to spend some time looking at the 2016 US Presidential race in detail. Make no mistake, the campaign is in full swing, with Iowa and New Hampshire just a few short months away. I…

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Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

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Hmmmm http://t.co/DKqC19NDFL pic.twitter.com/9NZRzrOAZS — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2015 Last night the Guardian reported that Labour members and supporters have begun protesting to the party about their lack of ballot papers with less than a week to go before the leadership election closes. The party initially promised that 99.9% of its electorate would have received ballot papers by 28 August, but it is now refusing to disclose how many of the 554,000 have been sent out.  A initial batch of…

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