Ipsos-MORI boost for Boris in the Cameron successor stakes

Ipsos-MORI boost for Boris in the Cameron successor stakes

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Boris Johnson top choice of GB voters for next CON leader – Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/09GLsHMJmN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 1, 2015 But George doing better with CON voters We’re going to have to get used to a lot of this – polling on the next Tory leader who could be the next Prime Minister. What’s striking is the huge difference between the all polled split and the numbers restricted to just Tory voters. George is in third place on 15%…

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Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting

Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting

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Marco Rubio – now a 27% chance on Betfair to win Republican nomination pic.twitter.com/kmGf9YSgxm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2015 While all the focus in the fight for the Republican nomination has been on the three non politician contenders – Trump, Fiorina and Carson – the big recent betting moves have been at the top of the card The former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush has yet to sparkle in the campaign and had seen his betting price gradually…

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The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

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Intriguing. @jeremycorbyn plan to win next election is to change the electorate – signing up non-voters & the young. @BBCr4today — Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) September 30, 2015 Labour risk piling up votes where they don’t need it Mr Corbyn’s plan has the major flaw that in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England Labour hold 94 of them, and 95 out of the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England and Wales. When you extend the analysis…

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Concern about immigration moves to highest level ever recorded by Ipsos MORI

Concern about immigration moves to highest level ever recorded by Ipsos MORI

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Concern about immigration rises sharply in the Sept Ipsos-MORI issues index pic.twitter.com/j3pfvAyDaU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2015 The Sept 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues IndexTrend chart showing concern about immigration moving to record high pic.twitter.com/jChStO5vqt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2015 The Sept 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues IndexConcern about immigration by different segments pic.twitter.com/zlgo0C6QDr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2015 Meanwhile the economy moves to lowest since the 2008 banking crisis The Sept 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Concern about…

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Pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has said that he won’t serve a third term

Pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has said that he won’t serve a third term

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The GE2020 choice won’t be DC or JC Last night we saw the release of the monthly ComRes phone poll for the Daily Mail showing the CON lead down 5 to 9%. There was much focus on best PM figures showing Cameron 24% ahead of the new LAB leader. One figure that stood out was that 26% of LAB voters in the survey chose Cameron rather than their new leader. The only problem here is that as we all know…

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First polling reaction to Corbyn speech – an Ipsos MORI focus group of LAB voters in Croydon

First polling reaction to Corbyn speech – an Ipsos MORI focus group of LAB voters in Croydon

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We've run focus group of ex-Lab voters in Croydon on speech – mixed reaction… results at 6pm Holiday Inn #Lab15 pic.twitter.com/RnhmYj6Hdc — Bobby Duffy (@BobbyDuffyKings) September 29, 2015 Focus group reaction: strong start "you wdn't get Cameron making jokes abt being a pig shagger"…#Lab15 pic.twitter.com/YSTvYc3oIF — Bobby Duffy (@BobbyDuffyKings) September 29, 2015 I’ll add to this post if/when more info becomes available.

And this afternoon Mr. Corbyn’s big speech..

And this afternoon Mr. Corbyn’s big speech..

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Another beautiful pic of Corbyn from Charlie Bibby, copyright FT pic.twitter.com/zAki7VgYd1 — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) September 29, 2015 No special set, no fanfare, no wife on stage just Jeremy Corbyn's #Lab15 Leader's Speech at 2.20pm ish pic.twitter.com/p7ASKKFsGK — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonTABB) September 29, 2015 Will he calm the doubters within his own party?

We can’t assume that the next CON leader will enjoy the same personal premium that Cameron has had

We can’t assume that the next CON leader will enjoy the same personal premium that Cameron has had

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ComRes Indy on Sunday/S Mirror poll Sept 19 2015 This could make GE2020 less of a certainty The big known unknown of British politics is what is going to happen when David Cameron, as he’s said he will, steps down and won’t pursue a third term. Quite what the timing will be we don’t know but it is highly likely that a new Tory leader will have emerged by the time of the next election and based on current betting…

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