David Herdson says “look to the outsiders for Cameron’s successor”

David Herdson says “look to the outsiders for Cameron’s successor”

Most Con leaders were off the radar four years before they got the job The clock is ticking on David Cameron’s leadership. As delegates meet for the first Conservative conference of his last term, minds will already be turning to the question of who will succeed him. It’s probably far too soon to be doing so. Ever since the Magic Circle method of election was abolished, the Conservatives have consistently surprised with their choices. In fact, four years before they…

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Mayoral elections are so much more about the popularity of individual candidates than their parties

Mayoral elections are so much more about the popularity of individual candidates than their parties

The big news today was that Zac Goldsmith was selected as the Conservative candidate to contest the London Mayoral election next May. This was a postal ballot of members of the Conservative Party in London plus others who had been prepared to stump up £1 for a vote. The turnout of 9.277 was a disappointment and compares unfavourably with the votes that Sadiq Khan chalked up in the LAB selection three weeks ago. In fact Zac’s CON mayoral vote of…

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Two CON losses – one to LAB the other to the SNP – in latest Local By-Election Results

Two CON losses – one to LAB the other to the SNP – in latest Local By-Election Results

George Street and Harbour (SNP defence) and Midstocket and Rosemount (Con defence) on City of Aberdeen George Street and Harbour Result: Scottish National Party 961 (51% +17%), Labour 490 (26% -5%), Conservatives 195 (10% +3%), Green Party 136 (7% unchanged), Liberal Democrats 96 (5% -5%) Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 471 (25%) on a swing of 11% from Lab to SNP Midstocket and Rosemount Result: Scottish National Party 1,168 (41% +2%), Conservatives 672…

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Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again

Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again

Tissue Price on Mr. Corbyn’s successor Amongst the favourites in the betting for next Labour leader are non-runner Dan Jarvis (8/1), non-finisher Chuka Umunna (9/1), and non-MP David Miliband (a stand out 20/1 with Stan James, otherwise 10/1). All are broadly on the right of the party, though admittedly Jarvis is something of a blank canvas. And yet the next leader will either be arranged by the PLP, in the Michael Howard manner, or they’ll be elected by broadly the same membership that…

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Next year’s London Mayoral election next will be the big test for the Corbyn leadership.

Next year’s London Mayoral election next will be the big test for the Corbyn leadership.

Don Brind on the day the CON Mayoral candidate will be announced “Sadiq. Wow” said the text message that came in as I was walking down an Italian hillside. It alerted me to the fact that Sadiq Khan had won the Labour London Mayoral selection by a decisive margin. The friend who sent it knew I was heavily invested in Khan stocks. Not only is he my local MP – and a brilliant one too – but no less than…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : October 1st 2015

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : October 1st 2015

George Street and Harbour (SNP defence) and Midstocket and Rosemount (Con defence) on City of Aberdeen Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 17, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 3, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of wards at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected George Street and Harbour Scottish National Party 672, 224 (34%) Labour 456, 381 (31%) Liberal Democrats 262 (10%) Independents 26, 222 (9%) Conservatives 178 (7%) Greens…

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Ipsos-MORI boost for Boris in the Cameron successor stakes

Ipsos-MORI boost for Boris in the Cameron successor stakes

Boris Johnson top choice of GB voters for next CON leader – Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/09GLsHMJmN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 1, 2015 But George doing better with CON voters We’re going to have to get used to a lot of this – polling on the next Tory leader who could be the next Prime Minister. What’s striking is the huge difference between the all polled split and the numbers restricted to just Tory voters. George is in third place on 15%…

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Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting

Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting

Marco Rubio – now a 27% chance on Betfair to win Republican nomination pic.twitter.com/kmGf9YSgxm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2015 While all the focus in the fight for the Republican nomination has been on the three non politician contenders – Trump, Fiorina and Carson – the big recent betting moves have been at the top of the card The former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush has yet to sparkle in the campaign and had seen his betting price gradually…

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