Local By-Election Preview : October 29th 2015 – 3 Con, 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem defences

Local By-Election Preview : October 29th 2015 – 3 Con, 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem defences

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Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 27, Conservative 9 (Labour majority of 18) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,474, 1,361, 1,310 (77%) United Kingdom Independence Party 438, 348 (23%) Candidates duly elected: Michael Cassells (Lab), Carole Friend (Con), Colin Rudd (UKIP) For such a Labour heartland, Barrow and Furness’ constituency results have been, of late, anything but a heartland. At the 1992 general election…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast on Polling Matters – Tax Credits, Lords reform and George Osborne

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast on Polling Matters – Tax Credits, Lords reform and George Osborne

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What’ll happen to the Lords,tax credits and George Osborne? Polling Matters returns. Keiran, Rob and James discuss the implications of the tax credits row for the House of Lords. What do the public think about welfare? What do they think about the House of Lords and has George Osborne damaged his chances of becoming Prime Minister this week? Remember tonight’s PB gathering in London: All invited Details and map can be found here.

Jeb Bush’s bid for the GOP nomination looks even more in doubt after a clumsy performance in latest primary debate

Jeb Bush’s bid for the GOP nomination looks even more in doubt after a clumsy performance in latest primary debate

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Rubio heading to 40% in the nominee betting The clip above gives a taste of the overnight third Republican debate. Bush, who not too long ago had been touching evens in the nomination betting, was under huge pressure to assert himself and take on the young Senator from Florida his own state, Marco Rubio. He did it in such a cack handed manner and unfortunately for him Rubio was waiting with a solid response. Bush bombed. The other big losers…

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If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax credit change it’s arguable that they would NOT have won

If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax credit change it’s arguable that they would NOT have won

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Next time it’ll harder not to be specific An interesting point was raised by an SNP MP at PMQs: “.. the reason David Cameron chose not to include this policy in his manifesto – and the reason he promised before the election not to do it – is because he knows if he had done, he would not have been elected. Pushing working families into poverty even goes against the most right wing Tory rhetoric about those mythical “benefit scroungers”….

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More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

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This month's "well/badly" ratings from YouGov on Cameron & Corbyn. pic.twitter.com/rRrKnttGbS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2015 JC comparing badly with EdM’s early ratings Latest YouGov well/badly ratings have Corbyn with a net minus 20. Table above shows EdM's numbers in 1st months pic.twitter.com/W3n9niiifH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2015 The latest YouGov Well/Badly ratings are in the top panel above and show Corbyn with a net minus 20%. Normally main party leaders enjoy a honeymoon partly caused…

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Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having taken a reputational hit the question is can he recover?

Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having taken a reputational hit the question is can he recover?

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Remember Maggie survived taking away school milk George Osborne is a bit like Volkswagen – never really loved but until a short time ago highly regarded for reliability and performance. Then came the tax credits – his version of the diesel emissions scandal with the defeat software designed to get round environmental tests. For the past six months Osborne had appeared to be able to do no wrong. He got much of the kudos within the Conservative Party for the…

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On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked off the top slot in new national poll

On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked off the top slot in new national poll

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Trump edged out for the first time in three months Tomorrow’s a big night in the fight for the GOP nomination – the third big TV debate. With established politicians all making heavy weather in the polls the former neuro-surgeon, Ben Carson and Donald Trump have been leading with, until today, the latter having the edge. But now we have this one from CBS/NYT. New CBS Republican national nominee poll has Trump in 2nd place26% – Carson22% – Trump8% –…

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Antifrank looks at what now for the House of Lords

Antifrank looks at what now for the House of Lords

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The possible courses of action So the House of Lords has opted for confrontation with the government by asserting its right to intervene on financial matters that are not covered by the letter of the Parliament Act 1949. In turn, the government, like King Lear, has threatened that “I will do such things — what they are yet I know not — but they shall be the terrors of the earth”. We’ll see. It has long been recognised by pretty much everyone at…

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