Carson now ahead of Trump in the RCP GOP nominee polling averagehttps://t.co/x61cQvnKNs pic.twitter.com/PNTWpwRkg9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2015 In the betting Rubio reigns supreme
The Lib Dems had a disastrous election in 2015, tallying just eight seats. Where do they go from here? Is the only way up? Well, actually, no. There is a serious possibility that things could get worse for them in 2020. Of their eight seats, only one of them looks truly safe on current boundaries: that of their leader, Tim Farron. Three of their four most marginal seats look as though they may well lose their Lib Dem incumbents: Southport,…
Contenders need to be able to reach out beyond their party bases One of the biggest UK political battles and what will certainly be a big political betting event will be next year’s race for the London will between Zac Goldsmith for the Blues and Sadiq Khan for the Reds. This will be the fifth time there’s been such an elections and so far CON has won two, LAB one and independent one. The latter, of course, was Ken in…
Attention Tory leadership candidates: 71% of party members inclined to @vote_leave https://t.co/zxhtCslumi pic.twitter.com/TJZRtKSL6f — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) November 3, 2015 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Because there is a general clampdown down in the US on online betting many US observers are having to look at what is happening on the UK markets in order to get a sense of the betting sentiment on the White House Race. A new American site has just been established, which is monitoring this daily and producing regular reports on how things are being seen. It is covering three elements, the Democratic nomination, the Republican nomination and of course…
UKIP set to choose John Bickley for Oldham & R by election. He came within whisker in Oct 2014 Heywood by-election pic.twitter.com/h99YY4SzvR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2015 Can he repeat his Heywood & Middleton magic? One of the huge shocks, and what in retrospect turned out to be a good pointer to GE2015, was the way that UKIP ran LAB so close in the October 2014 by-election Heywood & Middleton which is very close to Oldham. This, like…
2 months of EU referendum polling. Notice how YouGov – subject of complaint from LEAVE, has had best OUT figures pic.twitter.com/DqQsWw5Csy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 The phone surveys are best for IN online ones for OUT Trying to come to any conclusions from the referendum polling is difficult because there’s such a different pattern with the phone surveys painting a totally different picture of the race than the online ones. So in the past two weeks we’ve…
Ladbrokes betting on who will lead the LEAVE campaign pic.twitter.com/3eTZQK2Yc8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 Boris trails Nigel and Theresa in the polling As the referendum gets closer a key decision which could have huge impact on British politics in all sorts of ways is is who will lead the OUT campaign. Survation carried out some polling for LEAVE.EU and found:- Theresa May 22% Nigel Farage 18% Boris Johnson 14% These findings are somewhat surprising. I’d have expected…