Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German Chancellor

Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German Chancellor

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She’s got staying power A regular feature of PB in recent weeks has been predictions that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position is becoming increasingly untenable and either she will need to resign or the CDU poll rating will collapse. At one level, this seems borne out by the polls – Merkel’s popularity is down to 49%, still enviable by British standards but far below her historical average. This is not just important for Germany: widely seen as Europe’s most prominent national…

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Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

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Even EdM had net positives at this stage It used to be that YouGov published its well/badly party leader ratings on a weekly basis. Now in this post-GE2015 polling disaster era we only get them once a month. The latest, for November, is just out for the Times and the figures continue to decline for Mr. Corbyn. Of those polled 52% said he was doing badly with 30% saying well. To put that into context on November 19th 2010 Ed…

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Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

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Before ICM's adjustment for don't knows+refusers LAB had small lead. The headline figures were CON lead of 6% pic.twitter.com/RnhkpXqkvn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2015 After “adjustment” Con 39 (+1) Lab 33 (-1) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 7 (nc) In a note of explanation the pollster observes: It should be noted, however, that the raw data shows substantive change which our newly strengthened adjustment process disguises. Based on (pre-adjusted) turnout weighted data, the parties are neck and neck, which…

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The “Next PM” betting would be shaken up if David Miliband indicated that he’d like to return as an MP

The “Next PM” betting would be shaken up if David Miliband indicated that he’d like to return as an MP

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He’d be Hillary’s choice as PM This morning’s disparity on terror related issues between the shadow foreign secretary, Hillary Benn, and Mr Corbyn highlights a problem for LAB that is not going to go away. The leader holds views that are way out of kilter with many of his party’s MPs not just his choice as shadow foreign secretary. A problem, of course, is that when the media senses blood it’ll go on looking for splits. Other shadow ministers will…

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The GOP nomination race: Unless the mainstream politicians make inroads soon Trump could become unassailable

The GOP nomination race: Unless the mainstream politicians make inroads soon Trump could become unassailable

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Carson’s slipping in state polls Above is the latest Real Clear Politics Polling Average and the big story remains. None of the mainstream politicians have managed to gain real traction while Trump remains very strong. The latest average probably overstates Carson who had a troubled start to November which is starting to be picked up in the state polls. A new survey for the first full primary state, New Hampshire, has Carson in sharp reverse with Trump 22% ahead of the…

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Meanwhile in Oldham….

Meanwhile in Oldham….

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via @PSbook . UKIP produce "fake" LAB leaflet in Oldham pic.twitter.com/NJsZsSzRke — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2015 UKIP thinks Corbyn is a negative for LAB – but how much of a negative? I’ve never been convinced by the above style approach to campaigning which is quite common – a mock leaflet that looks as though it has come from your opponent. This is the sort of thing that activists really like but does it get through to potential LAB…

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Why Jeremy Hunt might be onto a loser in his fight with the doctors

Why Jeremy Hunt might be onto a loser in his fight with the doctors

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Antifrank on  “picking your battles carefully” The government is heading for a major confrontation with junior doctors over pay restructuring. Jeremy Hunt is looking to change their terms of employment to facilitate his vision of a seven day a week health service. Junior doctors feel that the revised terms pull the rug from under them. They feel that Jeremy Hunt is spoiling for a fight and that he is looking to impose his terms on them. As a result, they…

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Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

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He needs to look like a potential winner not a loser For the moment at least Mr Corbyn’s authority within the Labour Party derives directly from the sheer scale of his victory in the leadership election in September. His winning margin, of course, was even greater than that of Tony Blair’s in 1994. So whenever questions are raised as is inevitable within the Parliamentary Labour Party given his lack of support there, his team will point to the September voting…

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