Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

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How do modern political parties cope with change? The current turbulence in Labour is part of a wider picture seen across the West. Simmering dissatisfaction with established parties and politicians is generating support for iconoclastic individuals and movements in nearly every country to an extent not seen for a long time. From Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump to Syriza, Podemos, UKIP, the AfD, the FN and numerous others, merely being not part of the familiar establishment attracts a wave of interest. In Britain, it’s…

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You can get 11/8 on Corbyn being leader at general election. Why I’m not tempted

You can get 11/8 on Corbyn being leader at general election. Why I’m not tempted

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Ladbroke make it longer than evens, 11/8, that Corbyn will still be leader at GE2020 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 The detail on YouGov/Times LAB selectorate poll. pic.twitter.com/TICSqT35Iz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 V interesting on Labour turmoil from @stephenkb (who correctly predicted Jeremy Corbyn win) https://t.co/RskLxyvc8c pic.twitter.com/ZRcRYZI1m1 — Sophy Ridge (@SophyRidgeSky) November 24, 2015 Great from @hopisen 71% of Corbyn voters don't mind if their policies stop them winning elections. pic.twitter.com/7SSHSp9ybV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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As the national polls show LAB’s plight getting worse party members remain very loyal to their new leader

As the national polls show LAB’s plight getting worse party members remain very loyal to their new leader

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The key points from tonight's Times YouGov poll of LAB members & leadership voters pic.twitter.com/2htYOGi2uA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2015 How the Times is covering its LAB members poll pic.twitter.com/1NL6rVOWl3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2015 It’s hard to see how at this stage Corbyn can be ousted

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

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Keiran Pedley looks at this morning’s front page of The Sun and argues that we should always check the small print when reading opinion polls. As someone that has spent most of his professional life reading opinion polls I have always enjoyed this scene from Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how to rig an opinion poll. It’s a funny scene but does demonstrate a pretty important point that all pollsters know – opinion poll results are often as much about how…

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The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

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How GE15 CON voters react differently depending on the question format With question marks still hanging over voting intention polling there’s been a lot more focus on leader ratings which seemed to have performed far better as voting indicators at GE2015. But here’s a thing. Over the past five days we’ve seen three completely different pictures of how Mr Corbyn is doing from three of the UK’s leading pollsters. Just look at the chart above. With Ipsos-MORI things are not…

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The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

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Picture: Scene from Resident Evil, this might be how the typical Labour MP is now feeling because of Corbynmania. The typical Labour MP started off unenthused with Jeremy Corbyn as their new leader in September.  He commanded little respect among his parliamentary colleagues and he only crept onto the ballot paper for the leadership election with loaned votes.  It is fair to say that nothing that has happened since has improved the view of the average Labour MP of their…

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If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

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  Ten days before he became Tory leader, only 5% of voters preferred John Major as Tory leader. Via @majorsrise pic.twitter.com/fEmGNRQmtC — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 22, 2015 Often winning the Tory leadership is about who you aren’t not about who you are. Twenty-five years ago today Lady Thatcher announced her decision to resign as Prime Minister, but if the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling then her successor would not have been John Major but Michael Heseltine. The above…

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