We urgently need more mode variation Above is my latest spreadsheet of all the recent EURef polls. As can be seen the battle is quite tight with, by a smidgeon, the edge at the moment being to REMAIN. In the period covered by the table there have been nine different GE2020 phone polls yet just two of them have included the EURef voting question. Why do they go to all the cost and expense of phone polling and don’t seek…
A by-election in another LAB stronghold could be in the offing Word has reached me from a reliable source that another safe LAB seat where the party might have to fight a by-election. It would take place during the first half of 2016. Apparently the sitting MP might have to stand down for an innocuous personal reason. It’s suggested that the contest would take place on the same day in May as next year’s Welsh/Scottish/London elections. I don’t know the…
On this week’s episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran discusses the 2016 US Presidential race with Democratic pollster and strategist Stan Greenberg. Stan talks about his new book ‘America Ascendant’ where he outlines the profound demographic and cultural changes that have taken place in the U.S. and why they make the Democrats most likely to triumph in 2016 (and beyond). Stan also picks his three GOP candidates to watch and predicts an unlikely eventual nominee. Finally, the…
Osbo, who in Sept was 50% chance on Betfair next PM market – now down to 26%. Will today see him go up or down? pic.twitter.com/5RcwuKaPZU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2015 Why my money’s gone on the Chancellor this morning Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly. So I’ve developed…
@CllrJimMcMahon – the man LAB hopes will win Oldham W by-election a week on Thursday pic.twitter.com/EjscvXWDMz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 Expect big things for Jim McMahon OBE if he wins the by-election One thing that’s puzzled me about the Oldham by-election is why the leader of Oldham council put himself forward as candidate. He’s already a big figure within the party and, indeed, was being widely tipped as a serious contender for the second biggest elected post…
via @paulwaugh UNITE boss McCluskey says Corbyn has his "full support". Lucky Jez's not a Premier league manager pic.twitter.com/jKdm5pN4aD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 Union acion could be what does for Corbyn in the end It’s been another day dominated by Mr. Corbyn and the Tories are getting an easy ride over the bullying scandal that has been developing. Earlier UNITE boss, McCluskey, was reported as saying that the LAB leader would have to improve. Tonight there’s been…
How do modern political parties cope with change? The current turbulence in Labour is part of a wider picture seen across the West. Simmering dissatisfaction with established parties and politicians is generating support for iconoclastic individuals and movements in nearly every country to an extent not seen for a long time. From Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump to Syriza, Podemos, UKIP, the AfD, the FN and numerous others, merely being not part of the familiar establishment attracts a wave of interest. In Britain, it’s…