The main conclusion It cannot rule out herding The late swing theory There’s a conference in London this afternoon which I will be attending. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The raw data on GE2015 vote in latest ICM poll. The problem continues.. pic.twitter.com/ARwSzJIhAs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Latest ICM phone poll with changes on DecCON 40%+1LAV 35%+1LD 6%-1UKIP 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its…
Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend pic.twitter.com/Ps6MPVx08o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Hillary to be Democratic nominee now 82.6% chance on Betfair following overnight debate success pic.twitter.com/AB2dbxv4Ag — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 From. Pew Research. How the US has become more ideologically dividedpic.twitter.com/HQVJTWJ3ua — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Via @politicalwire Gallup favourability of GOP contenders. Look at how hated Trump is amongst Democrats pic.twitter.com/XRHFHUN36B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2016
Remember what happened at GE2010 and the last London Mayoral election This week’s polling news is going to be dominated by the publication tomorrow of the inquiry into what went wrong the GE2015 polls when all the firms undershot the Tory share by big margins. Unfortunately I’m at a memorial service tomorrow and won’t be able to attend the big event. In the build up we’ve started seeing some interesting explanations including one which suggests that CON voters are much…
Not even pledges by menhir could help Ed Miliband win a general election pic.twitter.com/7YVLtPG7xp — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 17, 2016 With Corbyn’s personal polling ranging from the calamitous to the cataclysmic it appears Labour are intent on repeating the mistakes of the 2015 general election This week sees two important reports published, firstly the BPC inquiry into why the polls were wrong, then there’s the publication of the report by Dame Margaret Beckett into why Labour lost, parts of Beckett’s…
The Grave of Karl Marx via wikimedia commons pic.twitter.com/r6w5UMdXOg — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 16, 2016 London is different. We often hear that. But just how different is it? London’s Mayoral election is due in May. With no incumbent, we are set for a fight between two rather less charismatic figures than before; neither Zac Goldsmith nor Sadiq Khan yet have the first name recognition or the tabloid quotability of the two previous office-holders. Default party support is going to be…
Not much cheer for the red team 4 months after Corbyn was elected Another Saturday night and another dreadful poll for LAB and its leader. On voting intention there’s no change with the Tories on 40% and LAB on 29%. But it’s the other findings that should concern those in the Labour Party who are hoping for an early return to power. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
What LEAVE has to do now if it is to have any chance The EU referendum campaign may well already be over with Remain having won. In many ways, that shouldn’t be the case. Europe hardly presents a picture of radiant success on a practical level, while the idea of a common European home is laughable when states are re-erecting borders against each other. A troubled economy, social disharmony and a dysfunctional political system – what more could a Eurosceptic…