The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used

The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used

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The ballot format gives a significant boost for REMAIN Since August PB has been featuring a regular table on the state of voting intentions for the referendum. For the sake of consistency the only polls that are included are those where the actual wording on the ballot, as above, is used. Some polls have used different formats like Lord Ashcroft in December in his large sample online poll. He wrote: “Rather than replicate the referendum question itself we asked people…

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Assessing Marco Rubio: A surge or just a bubble

Assessing Marco Rubio: A surge or just a bubble

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David Herdson on why he’s yet to be convinced Ted Cruz can feel a little hard done by. It was he, after all, who won the Iowa caucus, beating Donald Trump, the reports of the pollsters, and indeed everyone else. Normally, that would be enough to fire him into the media spotlight as the man with the momentum. Not this time. The ‘momentum’ badge has instead been awarded to Florida senator, Marco Rubio. Although he finished only third in Iowa,…

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The left could be preparing for Corbyn to stand down & be replaced by McDonnell

The left could be preparing for Corbyn to stand down & be replaced by McDonnell

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Might be a good bet Just had a small bet at 18/1 on Betfair on the shadow chancellor, John. McDonnell, being Corbyn’s successor. This follows speculation this afternoon started by Ken Livingston that McDonnell might be the one to take over when Corbyn goes. What’s odd is that the former London Mayor should be talking in these terms at all barely five months after Corbyn was elected. There have been suggestions that Corbyn has found aspects of the job, particularly…

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CON loses 2 of the 3 local by-elections it was defending overnight

CON loses 2 of the 3 local by-elections it was defending overnight

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Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire Result: Conservative 421 (44% -8%), Liberal Democrat 403 (42% +10%), Labour 99 (10% -6%), UKIP 43 (4%, no candidate in 2015) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (2%) on a swing of 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Measham South (Lab defence) on North West Leicestershire Result: Labour 257 (43% -12%), Conservative 202 (34% -11%), UKIP 141 (24%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 55 (9%) on a swing…

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YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

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On Betfair REMAIN drops a notch to a 66.7% chance So far in the referendum campaign members of the YouGov have been tending to be more in favour of BREXIT than those most other online firms and certainly there’s a massive gap between YouGov and the EURef phone polls. However the events of this week and the coverage they’ve been getting have not been good for Cameron’s position on the vote that is reported to be being planned for June…

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Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one

Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one

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Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 33) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,100, 1,002 (52%) Liberal Democrats 678, 634 (32%) Labour 347, 339 (16%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Aronson (Lib Dem), Daniel Divine (UKIP), Steven O’Dell (Lab), Alan Sharp (Con) East Cambridgeshire is the essence of what has been happening to the Liberal Democrats since 2003…

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Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

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New report warns that policies will be even more geared to the oldies The chart above is from the Intergenerational Fairness Foundation (IF) a think tank researches fairness between generations. It believes “that, while increasing longevity is welcome, government policy must be fair to all generations – old, young or those to come.” As a result of medical advances and having healthier lifestyles we are living longer. This combined with a far lower participation level in the political process amongst…

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