Trump and Clinton have double digit leads in first post debates South Carolina polling

Trump and Clinton have double digit leads in first post debates South Carolina polling

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First post debate South Carolina @pppolitics GOP survey hasTrump 35%Rubio 18%Cruz 18%Kasich 10%Carson 7%Bush 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 New post debates South Carolina Democratic poll from @pppolitics has Clinton 55%Sanders 34% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 After Iowa and New Hampshire the next in line comes the full primary on Saturday in South Carolina – a state with a very different demographic make up than the first two contests. This has a very high…

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REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll

REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll

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New ComRes #EUref phone poll sees sharp drop in REMAIN lead. Now just 8% pic.twitter.com/DQhwRO5LTU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The oldies in the ComRes EURef phone poll, those of 65+ splitREMAIN 39%LEAVE 52% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 ComRes/ITV EURef phone poll finds CON voters split with 45% supporting REMAIN and 48% LEAVE. 70% of GE2015 LAB voters say REMAIN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The challenge facing Dave is getting bigger I’ve…

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Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings

Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings

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Even CON voters give the Health Sec negative numbers YouGov’s February leader ratings are out and the bad news for the health secretary is that 17% of those sampled said he was doing WELL compared with 65% saying BADLY. What’s even more striking is that amongst those who voted CON at the general election the split was 36% WELL to 49% BADLY. Generally party supporters rate their own positively. The Hunt figures compare Corbyn’s 25% WELL to 59% BADLY overall….

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The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

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NEW @CapX/@YouGov: By 57% to 37% Obama should nominate Scalia's successor https://t.co/IakiSVeZsn #PortraitOfAmerica pic.twitter.com/s1nMY0IQp9 — Tim Montgomerie (@MontieUSA) February 14, 2016 This is how the New York Times is reporting the ensuing battle in Washington over the appointment of a replacement on the Supreme Court for Justice Scalia who died over the weekend. “WASHINGTON — An epic Washington political battle took shape on Sunday after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia as Senate Republicans dug in and said they would…

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The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

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Amongst Corbyn's own age group, those of 65+, just 11% tell ComRes they have favourable view of LAB leader, 71% say unfavourable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2016 Pensioners are the fastest growing age group The figures above speak for themselves. They are based on a subsample of 471 which gives us a greater level of confidence. Those within this segment are more likely to be on the register and much more likely to vote. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate yet

Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate yet

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He’s the only one ready to tak on Trump Just caught up on the overnight GOP TV debate ahead of next weekend’s crucial South Carolina primary and what a humdinger it was. The 5.1 contenders still in the race (Carson is the 0.1) were at each other hammer and tongues right from the start. It made great TV. Having fewer of them on the stage is producing greater clarity and allowed much greater inter-reaction. What impressed me was how Jeb…

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Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

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At the height of the Second World War, Abraham Maslow unveiled an important new theory of psychology.  Synthesising physical and higher needs, he arranged the drivers of human behaviour in the form of a pyramid.  At the bottom, he placed physiological needs – the physical impulses that drive every animal.  Above that he placed safety and security needs.  Rising further up the pyramid, he placed love and belongingness needs, the personal emotional connections.  Near the top of the pyramid, he…

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