Why Trump has got at least a 50% chance of winning the nomination
This analysis seems to be spot on Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead
Updated all the latest #EURef polling when actual question asked. The phone-online divide wider than ever pic.twitter.com/WO14EmOp4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 Ipsos MORI phone poll finds little change on last month when actual #EURef question asked. 18% REMAIN lead down 1 pic.twitter.com/tbXP0WO9vf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI #EURef poll. Cameron and Boris will be the key influencers pic.twitter.com/oZNwyJU1pg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI finds most people thinking that #EURef REMAIN will…
EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes
Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe. 69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do. Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down? Well, almost exactly in line with this. YouGov polled…
Obama ups the ante over the Supreme Court nomination
BREAKING: President Obama says he will nominate a Supreme Court candidate who is indisputably qualified for the seat. — The Associated Press (@AP) February 16, 2016
EU Referendum punters unmoved by by drop in REMAIN phone poll position
With all eyes this week on the final stage of the EU talks there has been very little movement on the referendum outcome betting in spite of the movements away from REMAIN in the latest online and phone polls. So much depends on what comes out of this week and how Cameron puts it over. I always think that the PM is at his best when his back is to the wall and his worst then things are going well….
Trump and Clinton have double digit leads in first post debates South Carolina polling
First post debate South Carolina @pppolitics GOP survey hasTrump 35%Rubio 18%Cruz 18%Kasich 10%Carson 7%Bush 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 New post debates South Carolina Democratic poll from @pppolitics has Clinton 55%Sanders 34% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 After Iowa and New Hampshire the next in line comes the full primary on Saturday in South Carolina – a state with a very different demographic make up than the first two contests. This has a very high…
REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll
New ComRes #EUref phone poll sees sharp drop in REMAIN lead. Now just 8% pic.twitter.com/DQhwRO5LTU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The oldies in the ComRes EURef phone poll, those of 65+ splitREMAIN 39%LEAVE 52% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 ComRes/ITV EURef phone poll finds CON voters split with 45% supporting REMAIN and 48% LEAVE. 70% of GE2015 LAB voters say REMAIN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The challenge facing Dave is getting bigger I’ve…
Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings
Even CON voters give the Health Sec negative numbers YouGov’s February leader ratings are out and the bad news for the health secretary is that 17% of those sampled said he was doing WELL compared with 65% saying BADLY. What’s even more striking is that amongst those who voted CON at the general election the split was 36% WELL to 49% BADLY. Generally party supporters rate their own positively. The Hunt figures compare Corbyn’s 25% WELL to 59% BADLY overall….