EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe.  69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do.  Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down?  Well, almost exactly in line with this.  YouGov polled…

Read More Read More

EU Referendum punters unmoved by by drop in REMAIN phone poll position

EU Referendum punters unmoved by by drop in REMAIN phone poll position

Comments 0 Comment

With all eyes this week on the final stage of the EU talks there has been very little movement on the referendum outcome betting in spite of the movements away from REMAIN in the latest online and phone polls. So much depends on what comes out of this week and how Cameron puts it over. I always think that the PM is at his best when his back is to the wall and his worst then things are going well….

Read More Read More

Trump and Clinton have double digit leads in first post debates South Carolina polling

Trump and Clinton have double digit leads in first post debates South Carolina polling

Comments 0 Comment

First post debate South Carolina @pppolitics GOP survey hasTrump 35%Rubio 18%Cruz 18%Kasich 10%Carson 7%Bush 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 New post debates South Carolina Democratic poll from @pppolitics has Clinton 55%Sanders 34% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2016 After Iowa and New Hampshire the next in line comes the full primary on Saturday in South Carolina – a state with a very different demographic make up than the first two contests. This has a very high…

Read More Read More

REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll

REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

New ComRes #EUref phone poll sees sharp drop in REMAIN lead. Now just 8% pic.twitter.com/DQhwRO5LTU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The oldies in the ComRes EURef phone poll, those of 65+ splitREMAIN 39%LEAVE 52% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 ComRes/ITV EURef phone poll finds CON voters split with 45% supporting REMAIN and 48% LEAVE. 70% of GE2015 LAB voters say REMAIN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2016 The challenge facing Dave is getting bigger I’ve…

Read More Read More

Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings

Jeremy Hunt is doing even worse than Corbyn and Osborne in the latest YouGov leader ratings

Comments 0 Comment

Even CON voters give the Health Sec negative numbers YouGov’s February leader ratings are out and the bad news for the health secretary is that 17% of those sampled said he was doing WELL compared with 65% saying BADLY. What’s even more striking is that amongst those who voted CON at the general election the split was 36% WELL to 49% BADLY. Generally party supporters rate their own positively. The Hunt figures compare Corbyn’s 25% WELL to 59% BADLY overall….

Read More Read More

The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

Comments 0 Comment

NEW @CapX/@YouGov: By 57% to 37% Obama should nominate Scalia's successor https://t.co/IakiSVeZsn #PortraitOfAmerica pic.twitter.com/s1nMY0IQp9 — Tim Montgomerie (@MontieUSA) February 14, 2016 This is how the New York Times is reporting the ensuing battle in Washington over the appointment of a replacement on the Supreme Court for Justice Scalia who died over the weekend. “WASHINGTON — An epic Washington political battle took shape on Sunday after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia as Senate Republicans dug in and said they would…

Read More Read More

The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

Comments 0 Comment

Amongst Corbyn's own age group, those of 65+, just 11% tell ComRes they have favourable view of LAB leader, 71% say unfavourable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2016 Pensioners are the fastest growing age group The figures above speak for themselves. They are based on a subsample of 471 which gives us a greater level of confidence. Those within this segment are more likely to be on the register and much more likely to vote. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

Read More Read More