In this week’s episode Keiran Pedley interviews UKIP MP Douglas Carswell about his political journey, thoughts on the EU referendum campaign, the future of UKIP and whether he might rejoin the Conservatives in the future. At the beginning of the show Keiran also gives his brief analysis on Trump’s win in Nevada and recent polling of Labour Party members. You can follow Keiran at @keiranpedley
Phone polls trounced online ones in the 2011 AV vote I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other. At the general election the final polls from both modes were in the same ball park although during the official campaign period the phone firms were much more like to report…
 He’s now 1/2 to be the Republican choice The big news in the White House Race is that Trump had another emphatic victory in last night’s Nevada caucuses. This means he’s now made it three states in a row and is now a clear favourite to secure the nomination. It is not just the fact of victory that has been so striking but he’s winning by huge margins. Rubio came in second place in Nevada but a long way…
Saw ComRes has them splitting 52%-39% for IN It is a fact that all but one of the telephone polls carried out on the referendum since the General Election has shown more Conservative voters wanting to remain than leave. The exception was last week’s ComRes poll for ITV that had the IN lead down from 18% to 8%. This morning, as covered in the last thread,  the Mail is reporting a shift back to IN. The detailed data is now…
UPDATED with tonight's EURef polls. Table of all recent published surveys pic.twitter.com/Gpfh41vdss — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 Although the phone and online polls showing very different headline numbers the trend is the same – a move to IN since Cameron's deal. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 Tweets on the YouGov/Times poll Interesting thing about tonight's YouGov poll is no Boris bounce, and support for EU renegotiation much higher than support for draft deal — Sam Coates…
The voting public’s going to have to get used to this An “Out” video From a Leave.EU Tweet Like this collage from @LeaveEUOfficial pic.twitter.com/hawK1NPexJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 From IN https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/701874384307298304
There’s been a huge amount of discussion about the big differences between the phone and online referendum polls. Whatever is driving this, and there have been many theories, the trend with each mode in the PB EURef polling averages has been the same – away from REMAIN. As can be seen from the chart the current month sees online with a LEAVE lead while REMAIN is down sharply. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Alastair Meeks asseses the differing scenarios In a rational world, the Conservative party would select the candidate who is best able to connect with the concerns of the public and develop and explain Conservative policies to meet those concerns. However, we are dealing with the Conservative party here and the successful candidate is going to need to win over two different electorates long before he or she gets to the voters who will actually select the next government. With the…