Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton didn’t quite get the predicted clean sweeps but they’re both stronger favourites

Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton didn’t quite get the predicted clean sweeps but they’re both stronger favourites

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Results from Real Clear Politics Post Super Tuesday odds from. Ladbrokes pic.twitter.com/6wD953GsxI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016 The expectation before last night was that Trump would probably win all but one of the eleven states. As it turned out Trump took 8. Clinton was expected to have almost a clean sweeps but lost four. This is, of course, a battle not about delegate totals and throughout the night one of the big features of Marco Rubio’s performance was…

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Super Tuesday – the night goes on

Super Tuesday – the night goes on

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Super Tuesday results as at 0200 GMT via @politicalwire pic.twitter.com/lS5iKxpZjw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016 YouGov Conservative members leadership poll hasBoris 43%Osborne 22%May 19%Javid 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016

Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight if the 11 Super Tuesday primaries go according to the polls

Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight if the 11 Super Tuesday primaries go according to the polls

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March opens in the 2016 White House Race with primaries in 11 different systems including big ones such as Texas, Minesota and Massachusetts. Texas is the one which will get the most focus because it is the home state of Ted Cruz. He has to win there to even have slim hopes of making it to the nomination. Cruz has said putting pressure on himself: “There is no doubt, any candidate who cannot win his home state has real problems”…

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The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years

The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years

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Kinnock 1984 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1985 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1986 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1988 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1989 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1990 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1991 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1993 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1994 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1995 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1996 Net gains LAB in locals Hague 1998 Net…

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Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

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Embed from Getty Images BREXIT messaging has gone all over the place The referendum polling generally shows the EU hardly enthuses.  Yet Remain is still ahead in most of the polls.  One of the Leave campaign’s weaknesses is that there is as yet no agreement about what a vote for Leave stands for.  Many of the proposed answers are mutually inconsistent.  What should the intending Leave voter expect?  Here are some of the possibilities. Voting Leave doesn’t really mean Exit:…

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Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

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QSaw  NO2AV won by 35.8% The table shows the published AV referendum polls for February/early March in 2011 about two months before the election in early May. As can be seen  all the online polls had leads for the YES camp. The only phone poll, ICM, had it level-pegging. Unlike the EU Referendum there was much less interest and awareness and, of course, these  were carried out before the Cameron-approved anti-Clegg attack adds that dominated the final period. But the…

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Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

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In three weeks’ time, the nominations could be locked up The preliminaries are all but over with the first phase of the presidential primaries doing the job assigned them: knocking out (most of) the also-rans and narrowing the field to the serious contenders and the hobby-horseists. The game of musical chairs that is Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada left Huckabee, Fiorina, Christie, Bush, Rand Paul, Santorum and O’Malley all standing after the music stopped. Thank you and good…

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Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

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Predict the LEAVE and turnout percentages to 2 decimal points Win a £250 free bet at William Hill Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter the LEAVE and turnout pecentage down to decimal points The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error. I am delighted to announce that William Hill has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of a free bet for £250. If the winner does not have an account…

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