Latest online ICM poll has IN and OUT level pegging
UPDATED. Table showing all recent #EURef poll where ballot question asked pic.twitter.com/br7oqFjeNT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016
The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality
Table above: Opening excerpt EU Trade deals from 2000 onwards Alastair Meeks questions the assertions from LEAVE & Grayling There has been outrage on the Leave side at the suggestion in an official government paper that negotiations after a vote to leave the EU in the upcoming referendum might take up to 10 years or more. Chris Grayling commented: “Claims that it will take twice as long to sort out a free trade deal with the EU as it did…
Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton didn’t quite get the predicted clean sweeps but they’re both stronger favourites
Results from Real Clear Politics Post Super Tuesday odds from. Ladbrokes pic.twitter.com/6wD953GsxI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016 The expectation before last night was that Trump would probably win all but one of the eleven states. As it turned out Trump took 8. Clinton was expected to have almost a clean sweeps but lost four. This is, of course, a battle not about delegate totals and throughout the night one of the big features of Marco Rubio’s performance was…
Super Tuesday – the night goes on
Super Tuesday results as at 0200 GMT via @politicalwire pic.twitter.com/lS5iKxpZjw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016 YouGov Conservative members leadership poll hasBoris 43%Osborne 22%May 19%Javid 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016
Clinton and Trump should be even hotter favourites tonight if the 11 Super Tuesday primaries go according to the polls
March opens in the 2016 White House Race with primaries in 11 different systems including big ones such as Texas, Minesota and Massachusetts. Texas is the one which will get the most focus because it is the home state of Ted Cruz. He has to win there to even have slim hopes of making it to the nomination. Cruz has said putting pressure on himself: “There is no doubt, any candidate who cannot win his home state has real problems”…
The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years
Kinnock 1984 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1985 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1986 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1988 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1989 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1990 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1991 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1993 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1994 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1995 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1996 Net gains LAB in locals Hague 1998 Net…
Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk
Embed from Getty Images BREXIT messaging has gone all over the place The referendum polling generally shows the EU hardly enthuses. Yet Remain is still ahead in most of the polls. One of the Leave campaign’s weaknesses is that there is as yet no agreement about what a vote for Leave stands for. Many of the proposed answers are mutually inconsistent. What should the intending Leave voter expect? Here are some of the possibilities. Voting Leave doesn’t really mean Exit:…
Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory
QSaw NO2AV won by 35.8% The table shows the published AV referendum polls for February/early March in 2011 about two months before the election in early May. As can be seen  all the online polls had leads for the YES camp. The only phone poll, ICM, had it level-pegging. Unlike the EU Referendum there was much less interest and awareness and, of course, these  were carried out before the Cameron-approved anti-Clegg attack adds that dominated the final period. But the…