The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast

The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast

Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran looks back at a busy week in U.S. politics and updates us on the latest results from this weekend and fallout from Trump’s cancelled rally in Chicago. Keiran also argues why he thinks a Trump-Cruz ticket is more likely than the GOP establishment choosing a Kasich, Rubio or Ryan. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, could Sanders supporters being seen to disrupt Trump campaign events help his campaign and could President Obama’s improving approval…

Read More Read More

Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

Comments 0 Comment

On Wednesday George Osborne will deliver his eighth budget and I’m starting to wonder if this will be Osborne’s final budget, for the following reasons, Were Leave to win, I expect Cameron to cease being Tory leader, and a new leader, assuming it isn’t Osborne, will want someone else as Chancellor. If the new Leader is Osborne, that will also end Osborne’s tenure  as Chancellor. Even if Remain wins, Cameron is expected to conduct a ‘reconciliation reshuffle’ If it is a…

Read More Read More

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

Comments 0 Comment

Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave. Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote…

Read More Read More

LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

Comments 0 Comment

CON 38%-3 LAB 29%+2 LD 7%-2 UKIP 16%+1 GRN 4%+1 The Boris versus Dave findings An encouraging finding for Cameron and one which could be crucial that CON voters are twice as likely to say they trust the PM more than the Mayor to do what is best for Britain (54% say they trust Cameron more v 27% who trust Johnson more). EURef findings but no voting intentions ComResRes voting intwntion numbers have in all case but one come from…

Read More Read More

Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

Comments 0 Comment

Third place behind the Tories in the Holyrood elections a distinct possibility ScotParl voting intention (list):SNP: 43% (+1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB 17%: (-3)GRN: 8% (+2)LDEM: 5% (-)UKIP: 4% (+1)(via YouGov / 06-09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016 ScotParl voting intention (const.):SNP: 49% (-1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB: 19% (-)LDEM: 6% (-)(via YouGov / 06 – 09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Comments 0 Comment

The Republican nomination It is now Trump v Cruz. Lay anyone else. Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago. It’s quite possible that Sanders will deny Clinton the victories she needs to assure herself of the nomination without superdelegates but…

Read More Read More

Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Comments 0 Comment

We’ve got a lot to catch up on Just to confirm – the next PB gathering takes place at the Shooting Star on Friday April 8th from about 1830. We’ve returned to a Friday evening slot following requests from a number of people who say that will be more convenient. It will be the third time we have used the pub, the Shooting Star, which is very close to Liverpool Street station. Thanks again to the slim-line Fat Steve for…

Read More Read More

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Comments 0 Comment

Tory voters are very much split between the two I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either. Turnout is clearly going to be important and whether the Tory vote remain broadly split will stay as it is…

Read More Read More