Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

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Ynysddu (Lab defence) on Caerphilly Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 719, 559 (64%) Plaid Cymru 382, 224 (30%) Conservatives 70, 57 (6%) Candidates duly nomninated: John Kidner (Lib Dem), Phillipa Marsden (Lab), Marina Pritchard (Plaid), Joe Smyth (UKIP) Pocklington, Provincial (Con defence) on the East Riding of Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives…

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If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

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There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so. There are two reasons to believe why this might not be significant in the London mayoral election even though the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan,is a Muslim whose parents emigrated to Britain from…

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On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin

On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin

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The programme for those seriously interested in political outcomes If Labour is to have any chance of getting a good result in the May 5th elections then London is the place where it has most hopes. A victory by Sadiq Khan to re-take the Mayoralty for the party would provide a massive boost and maybe offset expected disappointments elsewhere. But will it happen. Discussing and analysing this with Keiran Pedley and myself are Tony Travers from the LSE and Martin…

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Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

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ConHome Was the Mayor’s Brexit move a mistake? The big political betting story this lunch time is that Boris Johnson has been pushed out of the top slot in the Conservativehome survey of next.com leader preferences by Michael Gove. Boris is, of course the long-standing betting favourite to succeed David Cameron but he’s been having a bit of a rough time during the BREXIT campaign. The mayor’s flippant and seemingly arrogant approach at a recent Commons Treasury select committee session…

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The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

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Real Clear Politics Trump drops further in nomination betting after his failure in Wisconsin by a bigger margin than the polls predicted pic.twitter.com/DxIJ7Ec2U8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2016 And another loss for Hillary In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz. In the Democratic race Sanders chalked up another victory though because the party…

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Latest from the key political betting markets

Latest from the key political betting markets

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The Republican nomination The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 These odds are live but you can find out historical position by taking your cursor across the charts. After today’s ComRes 10% Khan lead in London it is not wonder that the Labour man is an 85% shot but I do wonder whether the Lynton Crosby Tory campaign might have some aces up their sleeves for the final month. The referendum betting has surprised me. I’d…

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Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

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Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections CON 33LAB 30LD 16UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week. They have a…

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