We need to re-think next CON leader betting following Cameron’s rough week on his financial affairs

We need to re-think next CON leader betting following Cameron’s rough week on his financial affairs

Comments 0 Comment

SUNDAY TIMES LEAD: Now Cameron could avoid inheritance tax on 200k gift, by @ShippersUnbound #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/joPKCITJNC — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) April 9, 2016 Dave’s successor will have had a much more humble upbringing One consequence I’d suggest of the past week’s revelations relating to David Cameron is that his successor will come from a very different sort of background. Next time the party will not choose a “posh boy who doesn’t know the price of bread” to use the Nadine…

Read More Read More

The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

Comments 0 Comment

And if it is, then what? It is something of an irony that after months of saying outrageous things and winning more and more support off the back of it, Trump’s downfall might well be due to a sensible answer. There is, after all, nothing unusual or wrong in the principle that people who break the law should be punished. If it doesn’t feel right to apply the punishment, chances are the law shouldn’t be there in the first place….

Read More Read More

Philip Hammond: worth backing at 28/1

Philip Hammond: worth backing at 28/1

Comments 0 Comment

Another grey man might be just the thing to pick up the pieces If asked for a role model, few aspiring politicians would opt for John Major. Unfashionable, uncharismatic, comprehensively battered at the 1997 election: why would they? Yet the travails of the 1992-7 parliament culminating in that electoral apocalypse overshadow what he achieved in his first 18 months: reuniting a party riven by Europe and re-establishing the Conservatives as economically competent, ideologically pragmatic and on the side of ordinary…

Read More Read More

The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

Comments 0 Comment

From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – council seats up for election on May 5th pic.twitter.com/kMvXF0HZhc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – projection of seat gains & losses for May 5th local elections pic.twitter.com/J1OiRK5Wm9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 On May 5th more than 2,000 Conservatives will be putting themselves forward as candidates for local councils, the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, the London Assembly as well as for police commissioners in every…

Read More Read More

Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

Comments 0 Comment

He’s at his best when his back is against the wall As a reaction to Cameron’s dramatic admission on his family offshore investments last night in the interview with Robert Peston several bookies starting offering odds on him failing to survive the year as prime minister. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are making this a 3/1 chance. Given the nature of the way the information eventually came out bit by bit there is no doubt that the prime minister has…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

Comments 0 Comment

Ynysddu (Lab defence) on Caerphilly Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 719, 559 (64%) Plaid Cymru 382, 224 (30%) Conservatives 70, 57 (6%) Candidates duly nomninated: John Kidner (Lib Dem), Phillipa Marsden (Lab), Marina Pritchard (Plaid), Joe Smyth (UKIP) Pocklington, Provincial (Con defence) on the East Riding of Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives…

Read More Read More

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

Comments 0 Comment

There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so. There are two reasons to believe why this might not be significant in the London mayoral election even though the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan,is a Muslim whose parents emigrated to Britain from…

Read More Read More