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On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin

6/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The programme for those seriously interested in political outcomes If Labour is to have any chance of getting a good result in the May 5th elections then London is the place where it has most hopes. A victory by Sadiq Khan to re-take the Mayoralty for the party would provide a massive boost and maybe offset expected disappointments elsewhere. But will it happen. Discussing and analysing this with Keiran Pedley and myself are Tony Travers from the LSE and Martin…

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Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

6/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

ConHome Was the Mayor’s Brexit move a mistake? The big political betting story this lunch time is that Boris Johnson has been pushed out of the top slot in the Conservativehome survey of next.com leader preferences by Michael Gove. Boris is, of course the long-standing betting favourite to succeed David Cameron but he’s been having a bit of a rough time during the BREXIT campaign. The mayor’s flippant and seemingly arrogant approach at a recent Commons Treasury select committee session…

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The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

6/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Real Clear Politics Trump drops further in nomination betting after his failure in Wisconsin by a bigger margin than the polls predicted pic.twitter.com/DxIJ7Ec2U8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2016 And another loss for Hillary In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz. In the Democratic race Sanders chalked up another victory though because the party…

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Latest from the key political betting markets

5/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Republican nomination The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 These odds are live but you can find out historical position by taking your cursor across the charts. After today’s ComRes 10% Khan lead in London it is not wonder that the Labour man is an 85% shot but I do wonder whether the Lynton Crosby Tory campaign might have some aces up their sleeves for the final month. The referendum betting has surprised me. I’d…

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Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

5/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections CON 33LAB 30LD 16UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week. They have a…

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Forget Paul Ryan, it’s Cruz or bust for the NeverTrump campaign

5/4/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As Wisconsin goes to the polls, itâ€™s Ted Cruz (and not Paul Ryan) that the GOP must unite behind if they want to stop Donald Trump says Keiran Pedley Itâ€™s fair to say that Wisconsin occupies something of an odd place on the GOP primary calendar in 2016. If it feels like a long time since Republican voters have been to the polls thatâ€™s because it has been. By the time that Wisconsin votes this week, it will have been…

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After tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary we could be looking at House Speaker, Paul Ryan, very differently

4/4/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

From Politico on Paul Ryanhttps://t.co/gin0uviXsg pic.twitter.com/K0O8T76VvX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016 Paul Ryan setting himself up for nomination? Via @nowthisnewsHe admits he was wrong about people living in povertyhttps://t.co/VfLtBmCVZJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

4/4/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent.Â The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…

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