The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

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But Corbyn may well be safe until 2020 The British electorate rarely fail to surprise. It shouldn’t be possible to produce elections where all are losers and most are simultaneously winners and yet that’s precisely what happened. Taking the British results party by party (I’m excluding Northern Ireland, which is a different game and for which counting is still ongoing). Labour Sadiq won. That was the minimum requirement and was comfortably met. Labour now has the politician with the biggest…

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The big shock in London: turnout up from 37% to 44%

The big shock in London: turnout up from 37% to 44%

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As we wait for the almost certain announcement that Sadiq Khan has been elected London mayor the big news is that turnout has been about 44%. This is totally out of line with what most pundits were predicting with the general view that the fewer the total votes the better it was for the Tories. So the news that is emerging that it will about the 44% comes as quite a shock. Maybe the nature of the CON campaign and…

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Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

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Key moments of the #Elections2016 so far. Live updates here: https://t.co/ZUqdq49lFc https://t.co/PwHiCCzPlw — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 6, 2016 We now have a good bank of results, which while incomplete allow us to draw some conclusions.  So what conclusions can we draw? The pollsters have either made the right corrections from last year or have been lucky The local election results so far in are very much in line with the broad thrust of the opinion polls we’ve been…

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Elections update as LAB looks set to move to third in Scotland but did better than expected elsewhere

Elections update as LAB looks set to move to third in Scotland but did better than expected elsewhere

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Not since 1910 has Labour finished third in Scotland. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 6, 2016 Scotland: results suggest battleground shifting from left v right to nationalist v unionist https://t.co/ZIYmd4bryo pic.twitter.com/1WiXD2CdEq — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) May 6, 2016 One more reflection: it's logistically difficult, but also obvious that Ruth Davidson should be the next Tory leader. — Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) May 6, 2016 In London the Tory aftermath starts even before any results are in Even though the London result…

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Election night 2016: The news continues to roll in

Election night 2016: The news continues to roll in

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After 500 English Council seats declared out of 2500, Labour down 13, Cons up 6, Libs down 2, UKIP up 14, green up 2, indies down 7 — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 6, 2016 Vote change in Sheffield Westminster by election pic.twitter.com/UZipOaIcCI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 If the betting's right there's a 97% chance that @KTHopkins will run naked up Regent Street with a sausage up her bum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 Labour has…

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For the election night thread a special family picture

For the election night thread a special family picture

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I love this election picture from Nelson in Lancashire in the 1920s. The man on the left in the wagon is my grand-father, Charles Smithson, who went onto to become the town’s mayor. Tonight we should be getting part of the English local results as well as many of the Scottish and Welsh parliament results. The balance of the local elections will come tomorrow along with the PCC elections in England and, last of all, the London results on which…

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The results from today’s elections could just be the trigger for a LAB leadership contest

The results from today’s elections could just be the trigger for a LAB leadership contest

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It might be that we'll soon a LAB leadership contest. These are the latest Betfair odds pic.twitter.com/slvGOqntJE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2016 Currently my money’s on John McDonnell Every since his shock election last September the speculation has been that a danger period for Corbyn could come in the aftermath of today’s elections. The way that Sadiq Khan has distanced himself from his leader in recent weeks suggests that it is going to be harder for Team Corbyn…

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The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

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For the past year it has not been much fun being a political pollster. Whenever any new survey has been published it has been greeted with “Well we all know what happened at the General Election”. So today’s elections where there’s been polling, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and most of all London could play a big part in the renewing faith in what they do. The reason this might sound London-centric is because the General Election Scottish polling…

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