Just 18 days till Iowa Trump now the clear favourite on the Betfair exchange to become Republican nominee. Rated a 33.3% chance. pic.twitter.com/nme8WWCdbf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2016 For the Presidency he’s a 14.7% chance
This is big #EUref news. Boris says he's not an "outer" https://t.co/0a8iBc4yxp pic.twitter.com/fimi0HCPoB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2016 What about Jacob Rees-Mogg? The EU referendum is getting closer and last week’s announcement by David Cameron that ministers could campaign for LEAVE might have been expected to open the flood gates of senior Tories announcing that they would be campaigning against. Boris would have been a superb catch but the Mayor only does things that fit in with his…
Real Clear Poitics Why for betting state polling is a better pointer Every day at the moment the excellent Real Clear Politics site is putting up the above table showing the national polling average for the Republican nomination compared with what it was at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 races. As can be seen the national averages from the last two Presidential elections bore no relation to who in fact won the Republican party nominations. The reason is…
Embed from Getty Images Get the debate over Trident renewal wrong and it might be trade union leaders – rather than the PLP – that Jeremy Corbyn has to worry about most writes Keiran Pedley Despite a difficult few days, Jeremy Corbyn seems to have emerged from last week’s reshuffle stronger than ever. He may not have got the Shadow Cabinet that he really wanted but piece by piece the Labour leader is shaping the party’s top team in his…
Punters still don’t quite believe in Trump The screen grab at the top is from Fox News and shows the line up of GOP contenders to this week’s TV debate. The ranking numbers are based on where they currently stand in the national polling. Below that my chart shows the latest betting on the Betfair exchange. These are not odds set by the bookie but actual market prices of trades at 2pm this afternoon. Although Trump is well ahead in…
The Ipsos-MORI Newsnight poll showing overwhelming public support in England for doctors strike pic.twitter.com/1yCUsDVQWd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2016 All part of the price for the current power struggle It is not often that industrial action in the public sector attracts the level of support shown in the overnight Ipsos MORI poll for Newsnight. A split of four to one in favour of the doctors suggests that Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, still has a long way to go…
https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/686279815507255296 Trump ahead in Quinnipiac Iowa poll Trump 31%Cruz 29%Rubio 15%Carson 7%Christie 4% Caucus voting 3 weeks tonight — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Another Iowa poll has Trump ahead – ARGTrump 29%Cruz 25%Rubio 10%Carson 8%Christie 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Three weeks on from tonight meetings will be taking place in each of the 1600+ precincts in Iowa at the start of the WH2016 nomination process. Both the Republicans and Democrats have caucuses at the…
The Chancellor is 13/8 favourite to be Next Conservative Leader. He is 15/8 favourite to be Next Prime Minister. And on Betfair, you can get nearly 2/1 and 5/2 about the two propositions. But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term…