The Friday night BREXIT numbers – the polls and the betting
The trend on the Betfair Exchange
LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day claim is untrue could cause problems if it wins
The Leave campaign’s central claim about the cost of the EU is basically a lie. https://t.co/DD2cR4hHVq — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) May 27, 2016 The basis for ministers to dismiss such a referendum result perhaps? Yet again the independent statistics watchdog has had to step in a declare that the key number that forms the basis of the LEAVE campaign is untrue. This has been used consistently by the outers and it has formed the basis for the core message. It…
Making sense of the EUref polls? Watch discussion with Matt Singh, Keiran Pedley & Mike Smithson in PB Polling Matters TV Show
We’re back. After a gap of three weeks while our hosts, Tip TV, moved into new premises the PB/Polling Matters TV show is on the air and inevitability it was dominated by the referendum. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by Matt Singh from Number Cruncher Politics. Is Leave really losing and what changes are pollsters making to their methods as polling day approaches? We also look ahead at the implications of the referendum on British politics in the longer…
Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016
Northallerton South (Con defence) on Hambleton Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 27, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,414, 758 (49%) United Kingdom Independence Party 762 (26%) Labour 739, 654 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Dickinson (Con), Chris Pearson (Yorkshire First), Dave Robertson (UKIP), David Tickle (Lab) Northallerton (Con defence) on North Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 45, Independents…
This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks
This has been doing the rounds on Twitter & looks like the first Saatchi poster for REMAIN pic.twitter.com/439bBFCoA9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 Sowing seeds of doubt has been successful before The poster above has started being circulated on Twitter and my guess is that its is part of the Saatchi & Saatchi campaign for IN. The clarity of approach with a very simple message and even the typeface appear to be Saatchi house style. Whatever it is…
Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE decision hasn’t been good for his career ambitions
Boris no longer favourite to be next CON leader. Osborne moves back into the top slot pic.twitter.com/cjP7op8adw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 If the vote is REMAIN the ex-mayor could be the scapegoat Yesterday the Daily Mail’s renowned columnist, Katie Hopkins had a big go at the ex-Mayor under the heading “I thought Boris was going to save Britain from the EU, instead he has turned out to be a big fat fraud.” In it she registered in…
Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination
This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice. I quickly went into Betfair and got £11 at an average price of 81.59 without knowing a thing about him. I then Tweeted what I’d done and since then the price has moved in sharply. A little bit of time on Google later indeed confirmed that he was widely being talked about for…
Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains
I’m off to London this after to record the first PB/Polling Matters TV Show in our new studios near Victoria. Keiran Pedley and I will, no doubt, spend a lot of time discussing the polling and trying to make sense of it. There’s also been news of a London EURef poll. London Evening Standard report on Opinium #EUREF poll in the capital https://t.co/t0Z3YwB4Aj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2016 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet