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A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading too much into one day of polling

14/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Brexit paradox: The more likely it looks to happen the less likely it is to happen? After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that. One of the reasons is that earlier on this month I spoke to someone who is working for Vote Leave, and they were worried about…

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ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking among all voters but YouGov has Leave 7% ahead

13/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4) Certain to vote Leave 49 (+2) Remain 48 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The headline figures with Remain ahead by 5% is the figure ORB wishes to be judged on, whilst the Telegraph prefers to focus on the certain to vote figures. However what will really concern Remain is that Sir Lynton Crosby says Leave’s tactics ‘maybe paying off’ Whilst YouGov has Leave 7% ahead Exclusive –…

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ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain

13/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Latest Betfair odds. Leave was only a 16% chance a few weeks ago. £1.8m matched in the last day. £26m matched so far pic.twitter.com/qvHmwuHQrK — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The latest ICM polls for The Guardian are out. Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls. Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted…

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Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly.

13/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Following on from last week’s reports about the plans to topple Corbyn, The Telegraph are reporting Labour rebels believe they can topple Jeremy Corbyn after the EU referendum in a 24-hour blitz by jumping on a media storm of his own making. Moderate MPs who believe Mr Corbyn can never win back power think his failure to close down public rows which flare up and dominate the news channels leaves him vulnerable. By fanning the flames with front bench resignations and…

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Guest slot: The impact of leaving the EU on London’s technology start up scene

13/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I have never been political. I’ve never joined any party, and my voting record is patchy. What I do is start technology businesses, and I’m on my third right now. Knowing rcs1000 (he’s an investor in my firm), I asked if I could write a piece for politicalbetting about the impact of leaving the EU on London’s technology start up scene. Let me start by putting London’s tech scene in context. London has the second largest concentration of technology start-ups…

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Voters who are football fans would rather see their side win the referendum than see their team win the Euros

12/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Fascinating by @YouGov. Voters would rather their side win the #EUref than win the Euros https://t.co/wVWiX1B1cI pic.twitter.com/S1asb8Nm3Q — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 12, 2016 Though the Welsh are more evenly split pic.twitter.com/foxbYRgIAV — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 12, 2016 YouGov surveyed football fans across Britain and asked those who were planning on supporting England or Wales at the Euros and know how they will vote on June 23, whether they would rather see the EU referendum go their way or see their…

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With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might be wise to defer their bets

12/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By the same token REMAIN backers should act now It’s becoming very apparent that the sequencing of polls by mode is having a a big impact on expectations about the outcome and, of course, the betting. When, like now, online surveys are coming out regularly but their are few phone ones then the prospects for OUT look better which is reflected in the betting. LEAVE us better value when phone polls predominate. We are currently in LEAVE high driven, I’d…

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Roger reviews the latest EU referendum broadcasts

12/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69sNgfbU9Gs Above the Latest Stronger In PPB, you can view the latest Vote Leave PPB by clicking here ‘Get your facts first then you can distort them as you please’ Mark Twain Over the last few weeks research companies running focus groups will have been dissecting psychoanalysing and picking to death the innermost thoughts of voters. When Seth Godin wrote “Facts are unimportant. What matters is what people believe.” This wasn’t meant as a lesson to advertisers on how to hoodwink…

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