Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016 Leave odds tumbling on Betfair pic.twitter.com/7nq1y7IPfe — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 Newcastle not good for Remain pic.twitter.com/yrYK4Jxekb — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 TSE
Unsurprisingly Leave have hit 15 on Betfair but does high turnout favour Leave? UKIP leader Nigel Farage says it "looks like 'Remain' will edge it" #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 23, 2016 . @Arron_banks on Nigel Farage's early concession of a Remain win: "He doesn't know anything." pic.twitter.com/1ijwSgUBFY — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 23, 2016 YouGov #EURef on the day poll: Remain 52% Leave 48%. Not an exit poll. This type of poll was fairly out at GE2015…
Thanks to Roberto Robles, Global Counsel (@robertoroblesf) for this.
Barely a day has gone by in the past few months when I have not been asked why the referendum betting odds were/are so out of line with the polling. Surely , it has been said, that if the polls have it level pegging or even LEAVE leads then why has REMAIN stayed as such a strong odds-on favourite. I usually try to answer that punters are taking a much broader view than just the voting polling taking into account,…
If LEAVE does manage to win it'll be a far far bigger polling disaster than at GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016
In this shorter than usual version of the show, Keiran Pedley spends 15 minutes breaking down the eve of referendum polls and giving his thoughts on the campaign, what to expect on the day and what happens next.
The final three phone pollsBMG 6% REMAIN leadORB 8% REMAIN leadComRes 8% REMAIN ledJust Ipsos to come — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016 Full figures from ComRes phone pic.twitter.com/CNA2QaKcIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016
Only two phone polls have REMAIN winning Only a few hours to go and two more online polls, Opinium and TNS, are reporting LEAVE leads. This means that the latest surveys from all the online pollsters covering the referendum now have leads for LEAVE. With phone pollsters it is a different matter. Both ORB phone and BMG phone have relatively comfortable leads for REMAIN as the table shows. At 10pm we should see ComRes phone as well as the last…