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Don’t write off Mr. Johnson just yet – there are many twists and turns to come in the CON leadership race

28/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The ex-mayor drops to 2nd place in the next CON leader betting pic.twitter.com/lqlEughpw3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2016 I must say that I am a fan of the Conservative party leadership selection process. It has been designed to give a proper role to Tory MPs while leaving the final choice to the postal ballot of party members. It is the system that saw IDS win in 2001 and, of course, Mr. Cameron in December 2005. It would not…

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Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first leadership race poll

27/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The detail of the YouGov CON leadership poll which has Johnson 7% behind amongst CON voters pic.twitter.com/sL1K6dQsSG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2016 More on Times YouGov CON leadership poll. https://t.co/FanUVqzZDk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2016 What we really need is poll of CON members which YouGov has done very successfully in past — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2016 It looks as though Theresa May's low profile EURef campaign could pay off. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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The EU referendum: An attempt to analyse the in-play betting

27/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Michael Dent the creator of PoliticsOdds.bet, a site which tracks and graphs betting prices on political events, looks at the EU Referendum in-play betting At 11:36pm on June 23rd, just before the first result was declared, the market was just short of 90% confident of a Remain vote. So much for markets knowing best – the market was wrong, and staggeringly confident in its wrongness. So how did we get from there to settling the market for Leave? What follows is an attempt…

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Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t understand betting

27/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes betting barometer 2239BST June 23rd Punters aim to make money not to provide an alternative opinion indicator As well as the cries that the polls got EURef wrong there’s been something of a backlash against the betting industry which more than at any previous election had sought to promote itself in the manner that Ladbrokes did in the graphic above. They are being attacked for “getting it wrong” – something you’d never hear after, say, the Grand National when,…

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The fight to be next CON leader and PM: The race begins

27/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We’ve just got details of the Conservative leadership contest. The plan is to start it immediately and have Cameron’s successor in place on September 2nd. The process will be the same as the one used in the 2001 and 2005 elections. MPs will hold a series of ballot until a final short-list of two is agreed which will then go to the party’s 150k members. Nominations will close on Thursday then MPs will vote every Tuesday & Thursday until a…

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Corbyn’s hanging on but for how long?

27/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

BINGO! pic.twitter.com/fV1xA8yGOP — Tom Phillips (@flashboy) June 27, 2016 Labour parliamentary committee(shop steward MPs) meet 2pm then PLP tonight agrees to hold no confidence motion that'll be passed Tue-Wed 1/2 — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) June 27, 2016 A day for that famous old saying. "Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it treason!" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2016

Cameron is going, Johnson has been in hiding and Labour faces civil war. So who will lead Britain?

27/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The country has voted for change but the future is unclear. Leadership is needed writes Keiran Pedley Last Thursday’s Brexit vote was truly an historic event in our country’s history. The consequences for British politics will take time to play out. Right now the country is tense. Since David Cameron’s resignation Friday morning there is a political vacuum at the heart of power and sense of uncertainty in the air. Only a fool would predict with any degree of certainty…

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Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy

26/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Recent interventions into the Muslim world by Western powers post 9/11 have been characterised by one great failing. Whilst they have carefully planned and executed the military phase of the campaign, they have utterly failed to deal with the post conflict stage leaving behind failed states in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as a result. The Brexit campaign is in danger of doing the same thing if they do not sort out, very quickly, what their…

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