The summer of political turmoil continues: A look back and look forward in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

The summer of political turmoil continues: A look back and look forward in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Comments 0 Comment

On the agenda for Keiran Pedley this week:- Should May call an early general election? Corbyn’s battle to hang onto his job Have the Tories become the long-term opposition the to the SNP in Scotland? Can Trump beat Clinton Keiran is joined by two specialist political pollsters: Katy Owen, formerly a Senior Project Manager at Survation and now Programme Manager at Common Vision and Adam Drummond, Head of Political Polling at Opinium. You can follow Adam on twitter at @AGKD123…

Read More Read More

Trump becomes the first main party nominee in more than 40 years to refuse to release his tax returns

Trump becomes the first main party nominee in more than 40 years to refuse to release his tax returns

Comments 0 Comment

A big mistake by Trump? He becomes 1st main party nominee since Watergate refusing to release tax returns https://t.co/HdxRhfa62y via @msnbc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2016 Even Richard Nixon released his Releasing tax returns has become very much part of politics in recent times and has been a well established practice in the US since Watergate. Generally they are issued at a time of the candidate’s choosing and become an issue for a day or so before the…

Read More Read More

Labour’s massive challenge: Support for Corbyn as “best PM” is inversely proportional to people’s likelihood to vote

Labour’s massive challenge: Support for Corbyn as “best PM” is inversely proportional to people’s likelihood to vote

Comments 0 Comment

There’s a new YouGov voting poll out which has the Tories extending their lead to 12%. The figures are: CON 40% LAB 28% LD 8% UKIP 13% This means that the Tories have double digit leads in four of the five polls since Theresa May became PM. Clearly she is enjoying a honeymoon bounce but, on top of that, she is facing a Labour party that appears to be at war with itself. One part of the poll that show…

Read More Read More

The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

Comments 0 Comment

And Bernie Sanders played his part Congratulations to Betfair and the other bookies who have been quick to settle long-standing US WH2016 bets as events have unfolded at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. It’s now official – Clinton versus Trump. Given the continuing disquiet amongst some of his followers in the hall the 74 year old socialist from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, played his part in the evening’s choreography. Vermont passed when it was invited to record its votes. Then…

Read More Read More

Today’s 2nd terrible poll for Corbyn: YouGov ratings from its latest Scotland survey

Today’s 2nd terrible poll for Corbyn: YouGov ratings from its latest Scotland survey

Comments 0 Comment

Just 19% of Scots LAB GE2015 voters say Corbyn doing well, 66% badly Remember in those by-gone days in September 2015 when Mr. Corbyn pulled off his sensational leadership victory? Remember what he said would be his biggest initial priority? That was going to be Scotland where five months earlier Labour had slumped from 40 seats in the general election to just one – the same as the LD and CON. This was absolutely awful for the party and raised…

Read More Read More

ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% behind at lowest level since 2009

ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% behind at lowest level since 2009

Comments 0 Comment

CON 43% (+4) LAB 27% (-2) LD 8% -1 UKIP 13% -1 GRN 4% If other pollsters follow ICM’s 16% CON lead it could create greater clamour for May to call a general election In many ways the latest ICM poll is hardly surprising. The Tories have a new leader who is enjoying a honeymoon period while Labour is in all sorts of trouble with 80% of its MPs saying they have no confidence in their leader. The splits are…

Read More Read More

If Hillary Clinton does win in November then Michelle Obama’s convention speech will be seen as being crucial

If Hillary Clinton does win in November then Michelle Obama’s convention speech will be seen as being crucial

Comments 0 Comment

The First Lady rescues the Convention By all accounts the opening hours of the first day at the Democratic Convention had not been good for the Clinton campaign. The leaked emails and the irreconcilable Bernie supporters have made what should have been a showcase into something of a nightmare. There were persistent chants of “lock her up” whenever Clinton’s name was mentioned. Then Michelle Obama took the stage and made a powerful heartfelt case for the the person who was…

Read More Read More

What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

Comments 0 Comment

WikipediaLAB leadership contest 2015 If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th. Sure a lot can happen in the next eight weeks and Owen Smith is still a relative unknown but nobody doubts that he has a mountain to climb. Perhaps the best he can hope for is…

Read More Read More